Turkey is deeply frustrated by the outbreak of the war in Iran, which Ankara perceives as the realization of some of its worst strategic scenarios, and it is working to end the fighting as quickly as possible. The war poses challenges to Turkey, ranging from missiles being launched into its territory to fears of a significant refugee wave and a renewed flare-up of the Kurdish issue emanating from Iran. Regionally, Ankara has accused Israel of pushing the United States into going to war and is concerned about the strengthening of...
Since the war that erupted on October 7, a profound crisis has unfolded in Turkish–Israeli relations. One of the main manifestations of this crisis is the legal campaign Turkey is waging against Israel. Turkey is operating in this arena to entrench a lasting narrative of Israel’s culpability while refusing to recognize its security needs vis-à-vis a murderous terrorist organization and by portraying Israel as having violated international law, an act that must be punished. The Turkish moves have implications that go beyond the damage...
Over the past year, Turkey has been increasingly described as “the new Iran” in Israeli public discourse. Although this characterization is problematic in several respects—including because it downplays the Iranian threat, which remains in force, and because Turkey is a NATO member—it nonetheless reflects concerns about Ankara. Israel is particularly worried by Turkey’s military presence in Syria, Ankara’s involvement in the Palestinian issue, and the potential for friction in the Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, Turkey is growing...
A pressing question concerns the extent to which the Gulf states are prepared to send forces to stabilize and rebuild the Gaza Strip. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which possess significant economic and diplomatic leverage, are setting strict conditions for their involvement: the disarmament of Hamas and the transfer of its powers to the Palestinian Authority (PA). The UAE also demands a fundamental reform of the PA. These conditions may reflect a lack of real willingness to become involved, an understanding that Hamas cannot be...
Turkey’s need to renew its fleet of fighter jets is not new, but it has become more pressing due to acquisitions by other regional states and the outcomes of Israel’s war with Iran. Although Ankara is still dealing with the repercussions of its removal from the F-35 program in 2019, it now has more options than in the past, thanks to its improved political situation as a result of the war in Ukraine, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and Trump’s return to the White House. Currently, Ankara is considering three main options for...
The IMEC initiative reflects the shifting dynamics of the regional and international system, in which traditional and new players seek to reshape the map of transportation, economy, and geopolitical influence between Asia and Europe. The initiative highlights the economic potential of inter-regional connectivity and also the political complexity it entails—from geopolitical rivalries and infrastructure considerations to diplomatic constraints. Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and other actors each seek to...
Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdish underground group PKK, made a dramatic call on February 27 for the organization’s militants to disarm and dissolve. This declaration marks a significant turning point in efforts to end the violent chapter of the Kurdish struggle against the Turkish government. While abandoning the PKK’s long-standing fight, which began with the organization’s founding in 1978, will entail considerable challenges, there is evident willingness to act in accordance with Öcalan’s statement, at least...
Now that the Bashar al-Assad regime has fallen, Turkey is threatening the continued existence of the Kurdish-dominated autonomous administration in northeastern Syria. This development creates a number of dilemmas for Israel. First, the question arises as to what will happen if the United States decides to withdraw its forces from northeastern Syria. Second, given the great influence that Turkey is expected to exert in Syria in the post-Assad era, substantial Israeli support for the Kurdish struggle could lead to an undesirable...
The surprise attack by rebel forces against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is currently shaking the already fragile Syrian arena. Within just a few days, the rebel organizations managed to take control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, while engaging in widespread attacks on regime forces and their supporters—without effective resistance from the regime, as was the case during the Syrian civil war. Turkey, which supports the rebels, apparently gave them the green light to launch the offensive and is hoping to...
While the Israeli–Greek partnership has flourished in recent years, the ongoing war since October 7, 2023, has introduced new complexities that test the resilience of this relationship. Although Greece has expressed steadfast support for Israel and condemned the atrocities committed by Hamas, it has also joined other Western allies in voicing concerns over the war’s duration and the lack of a clear strategic objective. A unique aspect that should concern Athens is Turkey’s escalating anti-Israel rhetoric, which may also signify...
The continuation of the détente trend in the Middle East, coupled with the war between Israel and Hamas, is contributing to Israel’s isolation in the region. In this article, we assess the regional détente implications for Arab countries and highlight the importance of advancing normalization between Israel and these countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to counterbalance Iran’s growing influence and that of its allies, which could endanger Israel.
In July 1974, the Turkish military intervened in Cyprus in response to a Greece-led coup aimed at deposing President Makarios. Turkey cited the Treaty of Guarantee as justification, de facto dividing the island, and later establishing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in 1983, which was recognized only by Turkey. Efforts for reunification, including the 2004 Annan Plan, failed due to deep-seated mistrust and political complexities exacerbated by Cyprus’s EU accession. Recent negotiations, such as the 2017 Crans-Montana talks,...
