Publications

Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdish underground group PKK, made a dramatic call on February 27 for the organization’s militants to disarm and dissolve. This declaration marks a significant turning point in efforts to end the violent chapter of the Kurdish struggle against the Turkish government. While abandoning the PKK’s long-standing fight, which began with the organization’s founding in 1978, will entail considerable challenges, there is evident willingness to act in accordance with Öcalan’s statement, at least...

Now that the Bashar al-Assad regime has fallen, Turkey is threatening the continued existence of the Kurdish-dominated autonomous administration in northeastern Syria. This development creates a number of dilemmas for Israel. First, the question arises as to what will happen if the United States decides to withdraw its forces from northeastern Syria. Second, given the great influence that Turkey is expected to exert in Syria in the post-Assad era, substantial Israeli support for the Kurdish struggle could lead to an undesirable...

The surprise attack by rebel forces against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is currently shaking the already fragile Syrian arena. Within just a few days, the rebel organizations managed to take control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, while engaging in widespread attacks on regime forces and their supporters—without effective resistance from the regime, as was the case during the Syrian civil war. Turkey, which supports the rebels, apparently gave them the green light to launch the offensive and is hoping to...

While the Israeli–Greek partnership has flourished in recent years, the ongoing war since October 7, 2023, has introduced new complexities that test the resilience of this relationship. Although Greece has expressed steadfast support for Israel and condemned the atrocities committed by Hamas, it has also joined other Western allies in voicing concerns over the war’s duration and the lack of a clear strategic objective. A unique aspect that should concern Athens is Turkey’s escalating anti-Israel rhetoric, which may also signify...

The continuation of the détente trend in the Middle East, coupled with the war between Israel and Hamas, is contributing to Israel’s isolation in the region. In this article, we assess the regional détente implications for Arab countries and highlight the importance of advancing normalization between Israel and these countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to counterbalance Iran’s growing influence and that of its allies, which could endanger Israel.

In July 1974, the Turkish military intervened in Cyprus in response to a Greece-led coup aimed at deposing President Makarios. Turkey cited the Treaty of Guarantee as justification, de facto dividing the island, and later establishing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in 1983, which was recognized only by Turkey. Efforts for reunification, including the 2004 Annan Plan, failed due to deep-seated mistrust and political complexities exacerbated by Cyprus’s EU accession. Recent negotiations, such as the 2017 Crans-Montana talks,...

Following the local elections in Turkey at the end of March, which saw President Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party defeated in major cities, Turkey has implemented a series of harsh measures against Israel in response to the war in the Gaza Strip. Some of these measures deviate from Ankara’s previous policies, which had also led to a deterioration in relations between the countries during previous Israeli operations in Gaza. This deviation from past policies necessitates reexamining the bilateral ties and for Israel to...

The Treaty of Sèvres, signed in 1920 between the Ottoman Empire and the triumphant allies of WWI, is perceived in the Turkish public consciousness as a deep humiliation, and has had a lasting impact on Turkey’s foreign policy. Although the “Sèvres disgrace” was eliminated following the Lausanne Treaty in 1923, which amended and replaced the Treaty of Sèvres, Turkey still suffers from what is known by researchers as the “Sèvres syndrome” which pertains to the Turkish fear of foreign forces’ intention to harm...

The results of Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, 2023, were a major success for the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and a bitter disappointment for the opposition. The fact that Erdogan led after the first round of voting, coupled with the momentum that his electoral success gave him, positions the opposition camp on an uphill battle, and increases the chances that Erdogan will triumph in the second round and earn another term of office as president. Given the probability that the election will end with...

Current Situation – States’ respective considerations on willingness to advance relations with Israel ·  Core components determine ability to progress | Current Israeli Strategy – Strengthen normalized relations and leverage the Abraham Accords toward additional relationships · Cultivate quiet relations with additional countries | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Conception that “what was is necessarily what will be” – positive linearity · Incomplete acknowledgment that the Palestinian issue impacts relations ·...