The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
If 2020 is remembered for the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 stands to be the year of the vaccine. Nonetheless, the coronavirus will continue to shape the world, and the likely scenario is a gradual decline of the pandemic, marked by sporadic outbreaks. In the second half of the year, the effects of the vaccine will be felt, the Biden administration will settle in, and there may be a new government in Israel. The international system remains polarized, even as each country focuses on its individual problems. The Biden...
With Joe Biden’s entry into the White House, Saudi Arabia’s acting ruler Mohammed bin Salman will be required to adjust Saudi policy in order to maintain positive relations with the new administration. Against the backdrop of criticism in the United States of certain steps Saudi Arabia has taken – most notably the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and Saudi Arabia’s military operations in Yemen – the future relations between the two countries is a matter of concern, including for Israel. Saudi Arabia will have to...
The recent heat wave in Israel and the wildfires raging in the country in mid-October, as well as in neighboring Syria and Lebanon, serve as a stark reminder that climate change is happening now, and that its impacts are already felt in the Middle East. Given the expected frequency of heat waves, the reduction in water resources, and rising sea levels in the Middle East, Israel might well face a significant problem of regional instability, accompanied by large numbers of climate refugees at its borders. To better prepare for this...
Saudi Arabia is gradually changing its attitude toward Israel, laying the groundwork for a process that could culminate in full bilateral relations. Saudi Arabia’s economic, religious, and political importance gives Israel an interest in achieving a normalization agreement with the kingdom, as long this would not result in the erosion of Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME). Riyadh, however, has various internal and external constraints, as well as a set of particular sensitivities. For Saudi Arabia, the question of...
Recent reports have linked Israel to the conflict between the Arab Quartet (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt) and Qatar. These reports speculate that in return for United States pressure on the Quartet to end the boycott on Qatar, Doha will agree to join the Abraham Accords framework and normalize its relations with Israel. Reaching an agreement of this kind is not an easy task because of the tension and even hostility between the Saudi and UAE regimes and Qatar. Another hurdle is the need to persuade Doha...
China responded coolly to the normalization agreements between Israel and the Gulf states, due to its concerns that these accords, sponsored by the United States, derived inter alia from the United States’ intention to damage China’s relations with friendly countries in the Middle East and create alliances against China. Against a background of Chinese-American tensions, there are a number of signs of cool winds blowing from China toward Israel, such as the delay in appointing a new ambassador to Israel, and the lack of contact...
The peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and the declaration of peace between Israel and Bahrain (the Abraham Accords) represent the first step in a regional peace process since the peace treaty with Jordan, and an opening for other Arab countries to join the trend of normalization with Israel. The agreements are founded on national security considerations and sharp awareness of the shared Iranian threat and the countries’ common ally, the United States. At the same time, these agreements also embody economic...
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) held a Cabinet meeting to analyze the peace and normalization agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Researchers focused on the background to the agreement and its implications for Israel and the Middle East. Participants addressed several questions, among them: What is included in the agreement, and what was omitted? Which objectives of the Trump administration propelled the Accords? Why was the UAE in such a hurry to sign the agreement at this time? What...
The decision by the United Arab Emirates to sign an agreement toward normalization with Israel was hailed by Egypt, Oman, Bahrain, and Mauritania. It was severely criticized, however, by Islamist forces and the Palestinian Authority, which accused the UAE of deviating from the Arab and Islamic line. While most of the discourse in Israel is centered on the political, security, and economic interests affected by the groundbreaking agreement, less attention has been paid to the normative-religious challenge involved in legitimizing it....
The hospitalization in July of the world’s oldest leaders, King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia, 84 years old, and Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, the 91-year-old Emir of Kuwait, has rekindled fears regarding the stability of the six Arab monarchies in the Gulf. These monarchies are ruled by extended families that control most of the centers of power in their countries. As long as these families succeeded in cultivating consensus among their different branches, this centralized power has, over the years,...
On Thursday, August 13, 2020, the United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) issued a joint official announcement that Israel and UAE would embark on a political process that will culminate in the full normalization of relations. The announcement stated that delegations from Israel and the UAE will meet to reach agreement in various areas in order to build substantive relations. There are various possible motives behind the dramatic step of the UAE, given the changes in its strategic environment.
