The recent statement by Turkish President Erdogan that Ankara had made an advance payment to Russia for the purchase of two S-400 air defense batteries, combined with Russia’s confirmation of this report, constitutes a significant development that adds to the question marks about Turkey’s future in NATO. This development also strengthens Russia’s standing in the Middle East, because it is another expression of the rapprochement between Moscow and Ankara. However, the Turkish-Russian rapprochement does not by itself reduce the...
After years of disagreement between Iran and Turkey, particularly regarding the war in Syria, there are many recent signs of an increase in cooperation between Tehran and Ankara. A range of developments on the ground, including the success of Iran and Russia in ensuring the continuation of the Assad regime; cooperation between the United States and the Kurds in the fight against the Islamic State; and concern about the consequences of Kurdish ambitions for independence, as well as Turkey’s decision to send armed forces to Syria...
Support for the changes to the constitution that were put to a vote in the referendum in Turkey on April 16, 2017 rested on the claim that the amendments are important to help stabilize the country’s political system, enable Turkey to contend more effectively with the challenges before it, and contribute to its prosperity. However, it is very unlikely that the results of the referendum will allow these promises to be kept. It is more likely that the results will only generate new sources of frustration, which are liable to be...
For many of the Sunni regimes in the Middle East, the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency is a positive development, if only because it marks the end of Barack Obama’s presidency. Obama’s policy was seen as damaging and, in certain cases, treacherous towards those considered traditional American allies. The Gulf states in particular are encouraged by the more assertive tone towards Iran sounded by Trump and Defense Secretary James Mattis, who see Iran as the main source of instability in the region. However, Trump’s...
The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the...
The article assesses the balance between internal and external challenges that the Turkish regime seeks to establish. The analysis describes the internal political consequences of the failed coup attempt in Turkey in the summer of 2016, particularly in view of Turkey’s focus on foreign affairs, led by its involvement in the fighting in Syria, its opposition to the strengthening of the Kurdish forces in Syria, and the need to reach a compromise with Europe on the issue of refugees from the Middle East. It invites the conclusion that...
The United States’ stature as a leading global power in the Middle East has eroded in recent years. The administration’s decision to play a reactive rather than a proactive role in the Middle East created a vacuum in the region that was filled by elements that worked against the interests of the United States and its regional allies. The new US administration will be under the scrutiny of the international community, and the first steps that it takes will have critical implications for the way in which the various actors in the...
A resolution to the crisis in Egypt-Turkey relations, which recently seemed a viable possibility, is no longer visible on the horizon, at least for the near future. The coarse atmosphere that developed between the countries following the mutual slandering is an additional obstacle on the road toward restored relations, and strengthens each side’s stubborn adherence to its previous stance. Even though in the short term Erdogan will presumably prefer to stabilize his regime at home rather than address the relations with Egypt, in the...
At first the attempted coup in Turkey aroused much concern in Iran, and it is therefore no coincidence that Tehran was the first to express support for Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a few hours after the events began. The attempted coup in Turkey confronted Iran with the alarming prospect of a violent conflict in a large, important neighboring country; a possible downfall of an Islamic regime, even a Sunni one, was regarded by Tehran as a dangerous precedent. The Iranian regime views the possibility of an internal uprising...
The normalization agreement between Israel and Turkey is a positive and even critical development, given the regional challenges facing both countries, particularly those originating in Syria and the Gaza Strip. While Turkey and Israel may find it difficult to return to close security cooperation, the possibilities for cooperation in the economic field appear more promising. In any event, the achievement of an agreement between Turkey and Israel is only a first step in restoring the trust between the leaders as well as the...
The start of the operation to liberate al-Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State in Syria – including battles over the city’s important supply route through the Manbij region in Syria’s northwest – pushes Turkey close to the point at which it will be compelled to make a strategic decision. This area is the last Islamic State-controlled area bordering Turkey, and it is likely that in the end, the Kurds will be left in control. Turkey’s next moves will have a significant impact on the future of the federal region of...
On March 18, 2016, a new agreement on the Syrian refugee crisis in Europe was concluded by the European Union and Turkey, similar to a previous deal formulated four months earlier. According to the latest agreement, Greece will return “irregular migrants” to Turkey (mainly those who were smuggled into Greece), and beginning April 4, for every refugee returned from Greece to Turkey, Turkey can send one Syrian refugee to Europe if s/he entered Turkey legally. The latest deal with Turkey highlights the EU’s distress regarding the flow...
