The “Arab Spring” found al-Qaeda at its lowest point since the organization’s founding, a result of the global war on terrorism, which focused primarily on al-Qaeda. Yet the reverberations of the upheavals in the Arab world, which many thought would sound the organization’s death knell, actually proved to be its lifeline, because they led to regime destabilization and the toppling of national leaders who were among al-Qaeda’s worst enemies. In response to the civil war in Syria, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri identified Syria as...
Eight years after a series of uprisings erupted across the Middle East, there is a debate whether a relatively stable order (old or new) has taken hold in the Middle East, or whether the region remains unstable and, therefore, will continue to produce waves of unrest. At its heart, this debate reflects conflicting assessments of the regimes’ abilities to manage what few would argue are fundamental economic problems and identity-related crises that have gone largely unresolved and, in some cases, worsened. For decision makers in...
An assessment of Israel’s national security situation in early 2019 indicates impressive military, political, technological, and economic strength. At the same time, however, there is the risk of a military conflagration on multiple fronts, and there are limits to Israel’s current policy, which focuses on military actions but lacks determination to exploit political opportunities. In most aspects of national security, with the exception of preventing Iran from consolidating its power and influence in Syria and transferring...
The dynamic evident when President Donald Trump commented on the annual risk assessment prepared by the US intelligence community, seen also following the President’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, reflects the President’s current modus operandi vis-à-vis his administration. Processes unfold along two parallel tracks: on the one hand, using Tweets, the President promotes a policy that matches his approach on any given issue; on the other hand, administration systems are poised to minimize damage and provide...
In recent weeks Israel has declared that it will continue its policy of attacks in Syrian territory and if necessary will step up such attacks, in order to prevent Iranian military entrenchment on Syrian soil and disrupt shipments of strategic weapons from Iran to Hezbollah. This public statement is designed to underscore that Iran’s presence and activity in Syria is a red line that Israel has no intention of ignoring, despite the restrictions Russia has imposed on Israel and the US withdrawal from the arena. This and similar...
In the coming years, Syria will focus on tending to its war wounds while continuing to serve as a springboard for strategic threats posed by Iran and its proxies against Israel. It is in Israel’s interest that Syria rebuild its infrastructure, experience economic recovery, and benefit from a stable central government. However, there is inherent tension in Israel’s position. On the one hand, Israel might want to support reconstruction efforts led by Western and Arab states on condition that Iran’s influence is removed, or at least...
The combination of structural vagueness embodied in large cyber operations and their potential to cause real damage makes cyberspace the ideal field of action for Saudi Arabia and Iran and matches their strategic outlook and their concept of the use of force. The risk and the opportunity that cyberspace offers to each of these countries make it tempting, particularly when it concerns the long-term investment of resources. Cyberspace can therefore be expected to become another central arena of conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran,...
The conditions for the campaign between wars, the strategy that Israel has pursued in the northern arena in recent years, have changed, and bring with them new risks that limit or even remove Israel’s freedom to continue operating in Syria. At the same time, the objectives of the strategy have changed, and some of the risks are also an opportunity. If the original campaign between wars objective was to remove threats without resorting to a use of force that might lead to broad hostilities, today it can be argued that the objective is...
Strategic Survey for Israel 2018-2019, the latest volume in the annual series published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), reviews a period marked by distinct changes in Israel’s close strategic environment as well as events in its more distant circle that likewise have had a direct impact on the challenges and opportunities before it. The unfolding dynamics and trends that derive from these developments bring with them threats to Israel’s national security, which could spell military escalation or a standstill...
This chapter spans four subjects. The first is an assessment of the national security situation in late 2018, as formulated by the Institute for National Security Studies. The second section focuses on core issues for early 2019 that should be debated by Israel’s military and political decision makers. The third section examines black swan events, strategically significant turning points that are unlikely to occur, but if they do occur, would be of utmost significance for Israel’s political and security situation. It is recommended...
Each of the nearly eight years of civil war in Syria has been characterized by a central phenomenon or trend that influenced the development of the war and the future of the country. What began as a civil uprising in 2011 against the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad developed in 2012-2013 to a sectarian struggle of rebel organizations opposing the Assad regime, which is supported by Iran and Hezbollah. In 2014 the splits among the rebel factions continued along distinct sectarian and religious lines, with the dominance of...
The Israel Air Force attack in Syria on December 25, 2018 showed that Israel is trying to keep to its strategy of offensive action – the “campaign between wars” – that has been implemented successfully in the northern arena since early 2013. The attack did indeed show that Israel maintains its operational attack capability and that it can execute a focused attack of this sort even at present, while dealing with immediate risks of escalation. However, after six years, a combination of factors suggests that this mode of action in the...
