Germany is a leading member of the European Union and one of the world’s strongest economies. Consequently, it is a central target for cyberattacks from states, terror organizations, and criminal groups. Dealing with the threat to German democracy posed by campaigns to disseminate false information—plus the cyber threat posed by Russia—has led to changes in the German security concept, causing the German government to seek to increase its cyber independence and to establish offensive capabilities in this space. Understanding how...
In the coming days President Donald Trump is to decide whether or not to authorize the continued suspension of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. The US president is required to waive sanctions every 120 days to remain in compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Failure to waive sanctions will result in the automatic reinstatement of American sanctions on Iran, which contravenes the commitments stipulated in the agreement and therefore constitutes a breach of the deal and, in practical terms, an American...
Against the backdrop of the visit to Washington by President Macron and the scheduled visit by Chancellor Merkel in an effort to persuade US President Trump not to leave the JCPOA, this article zeros in on the key issues that need to be addressed by the allies. Guided by what is not only necessary but feasible at this late stage, the topics addressed include missiles, inspections, lack of transparency, sanctions, and the sunset provisions. Everything turns on political will – if it exists, agreeing to the proposed steps should not...
Ephraim Asculai | Emily B. Landau | Daniel Shapiro | Moshe Ya'alon
The indictment filed by the United States Justice Department on February 16, 2018 against 13 Russian citizens and three Russian companies regarding attempts to promote the candidacy of Donald Trump for the US presidency, amounting to intervention in the country’s political system, is a phenomenon enabling interference in the “consciousness” of another country, in the form of “cognitive subversion.” Cognitive subversion exploits one of the basic principles of democracy, freedom of speech, particularly...
Recent events and statements by German figures indicate a change in Germany’s attitude to Israel. What for decades was a unique bilateral relationship – grounded in the memory of the Holocaust and the commitment that Germany consequently made to Israel’s existence and security – has been increasingly shaped by considerations of realpolitik that formerly played a secondary role. Indeed, the role of memory in German policy considerations regarding Israel is slipping, in part due to the growing distance from the...
Depicted at 2018 Munich Security Conference is a challenging view of the global security environment, marked by a dangerous combination of worsening trends regarding the world’s climate, economy, and society; weakening strategic architectures; challenging technologies; and volatile crisis areas, led by North Korea and Syria. The Palestinian issue was marginalized, given its low influence on Middle East problems in general. Indeed, the Middle East is a secondary focus of attention for the international community, currently occupied...
Speaking about border issues between Israel and Lebanon at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) annual conference (January 31, 2018), Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said that the Lebanese government had issued a tender for natural gas exploration in the Mediterranean, including in an area belonging to Israel. His words sparked a fiery response from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and the media in both Israel and Lebanon reported that the organization was threatening to attack Israel’s drilling rigs in the...
The cyber threat ranks high among the risks to a country’s interests and national security. In recent years, this threat has already materialized in cyberattacks on political institutions, political parties, organizations, financial institutions, and critical national infrastructure around the world. In the future, additional risks are expected, particularly to the civilian sector, originating in the Internet of Things. These risks are the result of the growing number of connected devices, most of which are neither secured by the...
Seven years after the onset of the upheaval in the Middle East and two years since the implementation of the nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran, the main contours of the region’s emerging reality – including the actors, rivalries, partnerships, front lines, power relations, and behavior of the major powers – are becoming clear. Now, after nearly one full year at the Washington helm, the nature of the Trump administration and its influence on the domestic arena, the Middle East, and the global stage are also coming into...
As 2017 draws to a close, the Middle East is witnessing the convergence of several important developments that will potentially have a broad impact on Israeli national security. The civil war in Syria is subsiding through a process dominated by Russia, Iran, and Turkey – which poses the danger that Israel’s interests will not be taken into account in the deliberations and steps toward an agreement to stabilize the arena. The jihadist territorial Islamic State established in Iraq and Syria has been obliterated, although the underlying...
2017 was marked by increased Saudi-Iranian hostility, on both the bilateral level and the regional level, and by the strategic balance tilting further in Iran’s favor, intensifying the trend that emerged in the previous year. The new variable of 2017 – the entry of President Donald Trump into the White House – heightened the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and cast a potential shadow over Iran’s room to maneuver. On the one hand, the Trump administration poses a threat to Iran, by casting it as the main cause of regional...
Decision makers in the major European countries – Germany, the UK, France, and Spain – are certainly aware of the delegitimization trends and their implications, as can be seen from their statements regarding Israel. While their public statements seem to reflect a rejection of the movement to boycott Israel and they have taken practical steps against large-scale BDS activities, there is no guarantee that things will not change in the future. The weakening of the “old” politics and the rise of new parties that lack any historic...
