An assessment of Israel’s national security situation in early 2019 indicates impressive military, political, technological, and economic strength. At the same time, however, there is the risk of a military conflagration on multiple fronts, and there are limits to Israel’s current policy, which focuses on military actions but lacks determination to exploit political opportunities. In most aspects of national security, with the exception of preventing Iran from consolidating its power and influence in Syria and transferring...
Strategic Survey for Israel 2018-2019, the latest volume in the annual series published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), reviews a period marked by distinct changes in Israel’s close strategic environment as well as events in its more distant circle that likewise have had a direct impact on the challenges and opportunities before it. The unfolding dynamics and trends that derive from these developments bring with them threats to Israel’s national security, which could spell military escalation or a standstill...
This chapter spans four subjects. The first is an assessment of the national security situation in late 2018, as formulated by the Institute for National Security Studies. The second section focuses on core issues for early 2019 that should be debated by Israel’s military and political decision makers. The third section examines black swan events, strategically significant turning points that are unlikely to occur, but if they do occur, would be of utmost significance for Israel’s political and security situation. It is recommended...
The international arena has been marked by upheaval since President Donald Trump entered the White House, and policies and measures adopted by the US administration in 2018 have exacerbated the tension. In response, the other key international players, particularly Russia, European countries, and China, have had to adjust their policies to ensure that the unfolding dynamic does not damage their interests. These developments have directly affected the behavior of the international actors in the Middle East, and shaped the global...
Each of the nearly eight years of civil war in Syria has been characterized by a central phenomenon or trend that influenced the development of the war and the future of the country. What began as a civil uprising in 2011 against the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad developed in 2012-2013 to a sectarian struggle of rebel organizations opposing the Assad regime, which is supported by Iran and Hezbollah. In 2014 the splits among the rebel factions continued along distinct sectarian and religious lines, with the dominance of...
A planned meeting between the United States and Russian Presidents on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires was canceled at the last minute by President Donald Trump, ostensibly in response to Russian aggression toward Ukraine in the Azov Sea, close to the Crimean peninsula. Cancellation of the meeting highlighted a new low point in the ongoing crisis of relations between the US and Russia. In the days following the cancellation, a positive change was evident in Russia’s tone regarding Israel, and it is not impossible that...
President Trump has announced his intent to terminate the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, a major US-Soviet arms control treaty that eliminated an entire category of nuclear weapons in the final years of the Cold War. The expected withdrawal comes in light of ongoing US accusations of Russian violations of the treaty, first by testing and later (allegedly) deploying a limited number of missiles prohibited by the treaty. Expert opinion in the US on the expected pullout is split, as the move would have a...
The downing of the Russian Il-20 plane by the Syrians on the night of September 17, 2018 has become one of the most complex incidents in the framework of Russia-Israel relations, at least since the start of Russia’s intervention in Syria in October 2015. Following an Israeli attack in the Latakia region, a Syrian SA-5 anti-aircraft battery struck a Russian reconnaissance plane, which crashed into the sea, killing its crew of 15. Although it was Syria that failed to identify the Russian plane, Russia chose to blame Israel for the...
The Trump-Putin summit was marked by attempts by President Trump to minimize American allegations that Russia interfered in the presidential elections. The meeting also reflected the efforts of the two leaders to forge a close relationship, toward a renewed dialogue between their two countries. In practice, it is doubtful if the meeting saw agreement on the long list of matters on the agenda. Regarding Syria, Putin stated that he and Trump agreed to ensure Israel’s security and borders, according to the 1974 Agreement on...
The campaign underway by the Assad regime for the control of southern Syria, with eyes toward the Golan Heights, is yet another stage by the regime for control of the remaining rebel strongholds in Syria. Israel’s acquiescence regarding the deployment of Assad’s forces in the south, including in the Syrian Golan Heights, indicates that Israel is prepared to accept the return of Assad’s control along the border, though his forces are supported by Shiite militias and his army directed by Iranian commanders. Israel is relying on Russia...
While once serving as a cohesion factor across EU member states and in transatlantic relations, the “Russian question” has turned into a litmus test of EU unity and transatlantic solidarity. Since Crimea, Russia-related affairs in Europe have reflected and amplified existing fault lines across EU member states and within European political arenas and societies. Diverging European perspectives on Russia, coupled with transatlantic tensions on the “Russian question” under Trump, have sown confusion in Brussels’s Russian policy, serving...
The European Union in Turbulent Times: Challenges, Trends, and Signifcance for Israel maps, reviews, and analyzes the urgent issues on the European agenda. The essays in this collection review the political, social, and economic consequences of these issues and assess their significance, both for Europe and for Israel.
