Israel’s process of annexing West Bank territory has restored the Palestinian issue to center stage, after Jerusalem succeeded over the past decade in pushing the issue to the margins of the regional and international agendas. The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a war game to examine the ramifications of Israel’s application of sovereignty over territories in the West Bank. In the scenario, following the Israeli government’s decision to apply sovereignty in limited scope to settlement blocs in the Jerusalem...
The Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Finance are preparing the next defense budget, which is especially challenging in light of the current economic crisis. In this budget, similar to past budgets, there will likely be a notable absence of the direct costs of wars or large military campaigns liable to occur. In practice the Defense and Finance Ministries calculate such costs in retrospect, and only then do they explore funding sources. This article examines this issue and concludes that the costs of war and resulting damage to...
The “application of sovereignty” is a euphemism for the unilateral annexation of parts of the West Bank. This move would thoroughly upset the current state of affairs and change the rules of the game in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that Israel is now presented with what is perhaps a one-time opportunity to change the reality in the conflict arena: “Until today, Israel has always been the one that had to concede, to give, to freeze, and to withdraw…Now President Trump has said that it is...
The global, regional, and internal implications of the coronavirus are still not fully clear, but Israel’s 35th government will have no 100-day grace period. It must quickly restore the economy to full activity, despite the presence of the virus and the possibility of a renewed outbreak. On the security level, all the regimes in the Middle East are busy with the pandemic and internal affairs, and will most likely seek to avoid escalation in conflicts with Israel. At the same time, the risk of unplanned escalation (in Syria,...
A team of researchers from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) have conducted a study on how the IDF – particularly through the Home Front Command – could best use its various capacities to assist in the struggle against the coronavirus. The IDF should serve as a support system to reinforce and supplement civilian agencies, but it should not be drawn into the overall management of the crisis or specific economic and social tasks that exceed its authority, in order to avoid...
The coronavirus crisis has prompted Israel to take intelligence capabilities that were developed to combat hostile countries and terrorist organizations and – in unprecedented fashion – use them to collect and study data on the pandemic. Indeed, it has been shown that the intelligence community can potentially help in non-security areas. On the other hand, the penetration of the intelligence community into civilian space in Israel, particularly to track citizens, raises ethical dilemmas and legal issues. Overall, it appears...
This article focuses on the idea, if not the intention, to maximize what is perceived as a window of opportunity to advance the application of Israeli sovereignty to the territories in the West Bank. For an interest group that aspires to this goal, and especially for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there is a sense that under the current circumstances, Israel has an unprecedented opportunity that it will not have again in the near future to apply Israeli sovereignty to settlement areas. This window of opportunity has emerged in...
On Thursday, April 23, 2020, INSS conducted a second simulation of a “Corona Cabinet.” The discussion dealt with the exit strategy from the crisis and the steps that should be taken to return Israel’s economy and society to their routine. The principal insights that emerged from the simulation include the need to integrate management of the healthcare, economic, and social risks; an understanding of how the “Corona Cabinet” should operate and the need to establish a professional “corona staff”; the importance of differentiation as an...
Israel began easing its lockdown and moving into the next phase of living in the presence of the coronavirus, which will continue in different ways and intensities until a vaccine is found or until the virus disappears. While major emphasis is currently placed on the medical and economic tracks, the social dimension is also a key element that must be addressed. Although it is difficult to gauge, the social curve is no less and perhaps even more critical in managing the crisis over the long term. This article presents the importance...
What will the world look like one year from now, and how will the corona pandemic affect the Middle East? This article presents four possible scenarios: “continuation,” in which following a temporary interruption of a few months, there is a resumption of familiar global and regional trends from the pre-corona era; “revolution,” in which there is a fundamental change in the patterns that characterized life before the crisis and the world prepares for a new illiberal world order led by China; “breakdown,” in which all global actors...
A survey of the involvement of democratic nations’ militaries in the anti-coronavirus campaign identifies five, escalating levels of action: (A) logistical and medical support for agencies serving civilians; (B) transfer of military supplies and equipment to civilian networks; (C) assistance to police forces in maintaining order; (D) assumption of operative responsibility for the management of individual civilian networks; (E) direct management of the entire system of governance. The IDF is required to assist the country’s civilians...
On March 31, 2020, a war game was held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) simulating a cabinet session about the coronavirus crisis, attended by cabinet ministers, advisers, and experts (played by INSS researchers and other participants with relevant expertise). The war game, led by Brig. Gen. (ret.) Itai Brun and conducted through Zoom, considered Israeli policy on the coronavirus crisis and, in particular, strategic options for exiting the lockdown after Passover. The war game was part of the Institute’s...
