Israel’s stance regarding the war in Ukraine, which positions it between the West and Russia, and the composition and potential policy of the incoming Israeli government, particularly on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, highlight issues that are at the core of the special relationship between Israel and the United States. This relationship has been upheld over the years based on the American understanding that the two countries have shared values. Support for Israel in the United States is still high, although there is rising...
President Putin’s decision to annex four regions of Ukraine and his definition of his struggle against the Western elites as an existential struggle, while avowing his determination to defend the annexed territories and making implicit threats about the possibility of using unconventional weapons, significantly increase the risk of escalation. Consequently, the United States and its allies are now at a crossroads. It seems that Russia’s conduct will compel them to formulate a follow-up strategy that will heighten the...
The negotiations between the United States and Iran on renewing the nuclear agreement have run into serious difficulties following the opposition by the United States and the European partners to Iran’s demand that the IAEA close the open files on the Iranian nuclear program before the implementation of the agreement (120 days after signing). At the same time, Iran continues to accelerate the program, including the enrichment of uranium using cascades of advanced centrifuges. Three scenarios are possible: a resolution of the...
Global considerations prompted the United States’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, not military pressure from the Taliban. This is evident one year after the withdrawal, despite the difficult scenes of the first few days after the Taliban takeover of the capital, Kabul, and the victory celebrations of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Furthermore, at this stage the danger of an international wave of terrorism in the West led by al-Qaeda does not appear to be a concrete and immediate threat. The killing by the United States via an armed...
During President Biden’s recent visit to Israel and Saudi Arabia, there was ostensibly almost no discussion about the US strategic rivalry with China. In fact, however, during his visit, the President advanced practical steps to mobilize America’s regional partners to its efforts, primarily in the tech sphere. A joint statement about establishment of a dialogue between Jerusalem and Washington on advanced technology reflects common understandings about the challenges of technological competition, and signals a new stage in the...
Many Arab countries seek to improve their bargaining position vis-à-vis the United States and to expand their room for political maneuver, as reflected against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the accompanying energy crisis. In general, the goal of these Arab countries is to balance their need to maintain as close a relationship as possible with the United States, their traditional ally, with the potential benefit they see to cooperation in various areas with powers such as China and Russia. This cooperation, especially with...
President Biden’s forthcoming visit to Israel reflects his desire to demonstrate once again his exceptional commitment to Israel, while his visit to Saudi Arabia aims to advance immediate US interests: influencing oil prices, restoring US standing in the Middle East, and expanding the regional military coordination vis-à-vis Iran. In meetings with the Palestinian leadership, the President will reiterate his commitment to a two-state solution, but there are no expectations of a political breakthrough. In the...
Ahead of a possible visit to the Middle East by US President Joe Biden and his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Washington and Riyadh have accelerated the talks between them in an attempt to improve their relations, which have been cold ever since Biden took office. The tension between the countries has escalated against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and the feeling of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that the Biden administration, in contrast to its predecessor, does not regard them as important...
The West’s goal in the campaign in Ukraine is still the prevention of a Russian victory and the guarantee that Ukraine does not lose. To this end, the United States administration is leading an international effort to upgrade substantially the quality and speed of heavy arms transfers to Ukraine. At the same time, it is clear to the West that despite Russia’s failure so far to achieve its original goals in the war, President Putin does not intend to retreat. It is therefore likely that the US administration and European...
The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran over a return to the nuclear agreement ended with the text of the deal almost complete. Conclusion of the deal is awaiting political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand, which has met with American opposition, to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the US State Department’s list of foreign terror organizations (FTO). The issue is largely symbolic, since the move would have no impact on the sanctions imposed on the Revolutionary Guards. While...
The Negev Summit focused on images: The countries whose representatives took part in the meeting sought to convey a message of joint organizing for facing shared challenges. The United States also sought to demonstrate a commitment to its allies in the Middle East and to the region’s stability by attending the summit. But in practice, the region’s countries cannot prevent the finalizing of a renewed nuclear agreement with Iran and, apart from Israel, they are deterred from confronting Iran militarily; the Houthis continue to launch...
The response by the United States to the Ukrainian crisis is focused on efforts to send military aid, maintain and strengthen coordination with allies in Europe and NATO, and intensify the economic and political isolation of Russia. It is too early to outline scenarios for ending the campaign and certainly to sum up the broader significance of the crisis for the US and the great power competition. However, in the coming months the administration intends to act more forcefully to strengthen the image of President Biden as a leader who...
