The INSS 14th Annual International Conference, “National Security in an Atmosphere of Global and Internal Disorder,” was held on January 26-28, 2021. Participating in the conference were foreign ministers (from Germany, India, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel), party leaders in Israel, guest experts from Israel and abroad, and INSS researchers. The discussions and lectures highlighted four key motifs that will affect Israel’s national security in the coming year – two related to the external-regional and...
Israel’s enemies are aware of its strength, preoccupied with their own domestic problems, and eager to avoid escalation. However, war in 2021 is possible – in the northern arena and Gaza – following a “dynamic of escalation.” In a war, the IDF would employ lethal offensive capabilities on the ground, in the air, at sea, and in the cyber realm, and inflict considerable damage on its enemies. But in such a war, Israel would likely face massive surface-to-surface missile and rocket fire on the home front, and attacks...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The multilayered COVID-19 crisis – comprising health, economic, social, and governmental dimensions – continues to evolve in the context of much uncertainty, weakens national coping capabilities, and as such harms national security. In Israel there are two elements that amplify the damage of the COVID-19 pandemic: the constitutional-political crisis and the centralization of the public system. These harm governmental legitimacy, form cracks in the contract between the public and the leadership, and erode the ability to cope with the...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
The rapid vaccination process raises hope for the decline of the coronavirus pandemic in Israel and for an economic recovery. However, preparations for the recovery phase appear to be quite limited. Despite the tenuous political situation, the government, in cooperation with the relevant elements, must accelerate economic preparations for a recovery period in order to bring about rapid growth of GDP, and in particular, to reduce unemployment and its severe social consequences.
In December 2016, the Knesset approved shortening compulsory military service for men from 32 to 30 months for conscripts who enlist from July 2020. However, the IDF continues to operate according to the 32-month service framework, and based on professional military considerations, seeks to amend the law and restore the 32-month service. According to a Knesset communiqué, the Minister of Defense “has yet to formulate his position on the issue.” An informed response to the IDF’s position must tackle numerous...
The recent heat wave in Israel and the wildfires raging in the country in mid-October, as well as in neighboring Syria and Lebanon, serve as a stark reminder that climate change is happening now, and that its impacts are already felt in the Middle East. Given the expected frequency of heat waves, the reduction in water resources, and rising sea levels in the Middle East, Israel might well face a significant problem of regional instability, accompanied by large numbers of climate refugees at its borders. To better prepare for this...
This document was written a number of weeks after the second nationwide lockdown was announced. As expected, the measure succeeded in lowering the infection rate, albeit at a high economic cost and a new spike in unemployment. At the same time, Israel is witnessing rising friction with the ultra-Orthodox community, more extensive public protests, and diminishing public trust in the authorities, related in part to the government’s problematic handling of the multilayered crisis.
The purpose of this document is to propose an...
A public opinion poll conducted in August 2020 by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) highlights several important social phenomena in Israel resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. The most important is the lack of confidence among most of the public in the political leadership and state institutions, which presumably directly affects the public’s willingness to comply with the restrictions imposed on it. This finding is interrelated with the current political protest, unusual in scope and duration. According to...
Following the outbreak in Israel of a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and the government’s difficulty in successfully handling the combined health-economic-social crisis, growing voices – including among senior politicians within the governing coalition – are calling for the Ministry of Defense to be assigned the task of managing the campaign. Some are also calling explicitly for the IDF to assume direct responsibility for managing the crisis. This call was to be expected, especially given the high public trust in the IDF. The...
