Recent months have witnessed changes in inter-Arab dynamics in general, and in relations between Qatar and Egypt in particular, which have been tense and even hostile in recent years. Warming relations between Doha and the Arab Quartet (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain), which boycotted Qatar until January 2020, is expected to affect the nature of Qatar’s involvement in the Gaza Strip and its ties with Hamas after Operation Guardian of the Walls – and hence the importance to Israel. This trend gains...
Relations between China and the Arab Gulf states are evolving in new directions, some problematic for Israel and the United States. Against this background, the Abraham Accords, which offer Israel new opportunities for partnerships, also expose it to risks. Alongside the expected rise in the importance of the Gulf states for China’s energy security and in view of China’s increased political involvement in the Middle East, Israel must examine its ties with the Gulf states from a multiple viewpoints and take steps to minimize the new...
Saudi Arabia, which alongside the United States is ranked first in greenhouse gas emissions per capita, has launched an ambitious initiative for itself and for the Middle East, integrated into the kingdom’s 2030 Vision: producing 50 percent of its energy needs from renewable energy by 2030. The motives for the initiative are economic and political, and not purely environmental – namely, a desire to score points with the current US administration, which has placed environmental issues high on its agenda. Israel should consider...
The foreign policy of the United Arab Emirates, which has featured involvement in various theaters in the Middle East over the past decade, is evolving in accordance with changing conditions and circumstances. The country’s foreign policy goals remain unchanged – preserving and strengthening its relations with the United States – as have the threats, headed by Iran and Turkey. It appears, however, that for the UAE, assertiveness is yielding to greater pragmatism. This change in policy reflects above all an effort to adapt to...
The meetings reported in recent weeks between Iran and Saudi Arabia are a new development in the relations between the two countries, which were severed in 2016. The immediate context is the change of administration in the United States. The Biden administration has begun a dialogue with Tehran about a return to the nuclear agreement, and has also severely criticized Saudi Arabia. The changed stance in the White House has led to adjustments in Saudi foreign policy, including a reconciliation with Qatar in January 2021, the offer of a...
Political and security relations between Greece and Cyprus on the one hand and the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on the other have taken a major step forward over the past year. Political meetings, security agreements, and joint military exercises hint at the possible emergence of a new regional alignment. Underlying this convergence is an effort to thwart Ankara’s regional ambitions by linking the Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean, although this step is liable to exacerbate the existing tension in these theaters. It is...
President Biden has kept his election promise and published a report by the United States intelligence community stating that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, by virtue of his position and status, bears responsibility for the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The publication of this report is part of the process of the new administration’s “recalibration” of relations between the two countries. While the Trump administration relied on an intimate relationship with Saudi Arabia, the Biden...
The INSS 14th Annual International Conference, “National Security in an Atmosphere of Global and Internal Disorder,” was held on January 26-28, 2021. Participating in the conference were foreign ministers (from Germany, India, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel), party leaders in Israel, guest experts from Israel and abroad, and INSS researchers. The discussions and lectures highlighted four key motifs that will affect Israel’s national security in the coming year – two related to the external-regional and...
A decade after the regional upheaval, the struggle over the shape of the Middle East continues to play out in two realms: over the regional order, between four camps seeking to advance their ideology and interests; and within the states, between rulers and publics clashing over fundamental economic, social, and identity-related problems that have not been resolved since the Arab Spring and have even intensified. 2020 saw a decline in the confidence of the Iran-led Shiite axis; a rise in the assertiveness of the axis led by Turkey; a...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The annual Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit hosted by Saudi Arabia on January 5, 2021 culminated in the resolution of the Qatar crisis. The crisis began in 2017, shortly after President Trump’s visit to the region, as the so-called Arab Quartet (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt) imposed a blockade against Doha to pressure it to rein in its foreign policy. The blockading countries have started lifting their pressure campaign against Qatar, although the terms of the agreement have not been fully disclosed and...
