Operation Peace Spring, Turkey’s third operation in northern Syria since 2016, constitutes its most ambitious action in Syria yet. The developments leading up to the offensive and the outcomes of the operation have regional and international ramifications well beyond this specific campaign – particularly for the conduct of the various actors in light of President Donald Trump’s desire to end US involvement in conflicts in the region. The offensive was not in itself surprising given the numerous Turkish threats to this...
Strikes reportedly carried out by Israel over the past month in Iraq, and in recent days in Syria and Lebanon, are part of the “campaign between wars” (CBW) that Israel has waged against Iran’s regional campaign of proxy warfare. These incidents mark a deviation from the routine and from the principles that had guided the campaign in recent years. The recent sequence of events has three salient characteristics: the theaters of operations, the operational tempo and their public profile. These events have possible...
There are growing signs that Israel has expanded its campaign against Iran’s efforts to consolidate its power in the region, including in attacks on infrastructures in Iraq that are linked to Iran. An overall cost-benefit analysis should prompt Israel to consider the potential implications of expanding the campaign, among them an early withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, which would leave Israel alone in the campaign against Iran’s entrenchment in the region. The Iranian attempt to carry out weaponized drone attacks...
In March 2019, nearly five years after its founding, the Islamic State suffered its final military defeat when it lost control over its last stronghold in al-Baghuz, in eastern Syria. At its peak, the Islamic State controlled an area the size of Britain and a population of about six million people. Despite the fact that its attempt to establish an Islamic state, followed by an Islamic caliphate, was halted, the Islamic State and its affiliates, together with al-Qaeda and its allies – who share their ideology while themselves...
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced recently in Moscow that China stands ready to participate in Syria’s reconstruction. Some see this as a confirmation of their assessment that China will assume a significant role in the reconstruction, realizing its impressive capabilities in building infrastructure. Such reports generally link the issue to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and some have gone as far as to warn that there are inherent security risks for Israel. As with other issues pertaining to China and its...
The meeting in Jerusalem in late June between the national security advisers of the United States, Washington, and Israel was a preliminary stage in renewing cooperation between Washington and Moscow on a range of issues. In the Syrian context, it was a bid to pressure Moscow to reduce aid and support for Iran in exchange for an easing of the Western sanctions imposed on Russia. For its part, Russia is working to brand itself as a mediator between the United States and Iran on issues ranging from the nuclear file to regional...
The meeting of the national security advisers of the United States, Russia, and Israel in late June is an achievement for Israel’s policy, which navigates between the interests of Moscow and Washington and is a party to the superpowers’ dialogue on the future of Syria and the Iranian intervention in that country. For the United States and Russia, this is another step in the their efforts to create closer ties and to focus the dialogue between them on matters of dispute. The choice of Israel as the venue for the meeting was meant to...
The rescue of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by the pro-Assad coalition, comprising Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxies, led to the victory of the regime over the rebels; the coalition’s achievements stem primarily from the effective cooperation between Iran and Russia since 2015 in fighting the rebels. Now, with the battles over, despite shared interests in consolidating the Assad regime, inherent tensions between Russia and Iran regarding influence in Syria have emerged in greater relief. Yet despite the disagreements, this it is not a...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
On March 10, 2019, hundreds of residents of Daraa in southern Syria protested against the erection of a statue of former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad. The restored statue of Assad the father, which was toppled when the rebellion that sparked the civil war began, is a symbol of the victory of the son, Bashar al-Assad, who, while bruised and battered, remains in power. And yet, current protests alongside other leadership challenges, including the fact that Assad controls only about 60 percent of Syrian territory, indicate that the...
President Trump’s recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights was well received by most of the Israeli public, but met with disapproval from most of the international community. The American measure clashes with the commonly held position in international law, anchored in the UN Charter, that a country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected, and that wartime acquisition of territory does not confer a right to sovereignty over that territory. Therefore, the international community...
More than two weeks after Prime Minister Netanyahu’s most recent visit to Moscow, the public lacks answers to the four most important questions that concern Israel’s relations with Russia regarding Syria and the Iranian presence there: Has the deconfliction mechanism between Russia and Israel changed since the downing of the Russian plane and the decisive turning of the tide in the Syrian civil war? Has Netanyahu managed to persuade Putin not to give Syria control over the S-300 batteries deployed on Syrian soil? Is the reduction in...
