On October 17, 2020, Lebanon marked the anniversary of the outbreak of the “October Revolution” with demonstrations that were smaller than those at the outset of the protest, which included hundreds of thousands of people from all communities. One year later – a year marked by a fourfold crisis in Lebanon: economic, political, healthcare, and the port explosion – it appears that at least thus far, the revolution has failed. The calls for reform and change in the political system remain unanswered, and the situation in the country has...
The cognitive campaign is an important element in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Both Israel and Hezbollah can claim achievements in this struggle, albeit limited. The current stage of the campaign has featured Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech in the UN exposing Hezbollah’s weapons stockpiles in the midst of the civilian population in the heart of Beirut and the organization’s attempts to deny it, and Nasrallah’s threats to avenge the killing by Israel of one of Hezbollah’s operatives in Syria....
The start of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon on marking the maritime border is a milestone in the history of the relations between the two countries. It invites the question whether agreement on this issue might bring about a strategic change in relations between Israel and Lebanon, following the Abraham Accords and given the dire situation in Lebanon, which desperately needs external aid from the United States and other Western countries. An analysis of the internal balance of power in Lebanon, however, suggests that the...
On August 28, 2020 the Security Council adopted Resolution 2539 (2020), thereby renewing the mandate of UNIFIL, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, for another year. The resolution calls on the Lebanese government to facilitate UNIFIL freedom of access to the tunnel sites and all along the Blue Line; requires UNIFIL to report incidents promptly; and requires the UN Secretary General to present a plan for improvements to the force. The Israeli Foreign Ministry announcement implies the limitations of the achievement: “Now the...
French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beirut following the massive explosion that rocked the city reflected the trend of growing French activity in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially in the context of the Libyan civil war and the conflict involving Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus. This activity represents an attempt to curb the weakening of French influence in the region in the face of mounting competition from other actors. Following the wave of terrorism that France suffered over the past decade, the Mediterranean has...
Following the series of explosions at the Beirut port on August 4, demonstrations in the city resumed, though with more violence than what was seen in previous protests, and on August 10, the Lebanese government formed in January 2020 by the Hezbollah camp resigned. The demonstrators demanded that the current corrupt leadership be replaced and that substantive change be made to the country’s political system. Emerging against this background are two trends that may signal prospects for change. The first is the new level of the...
Every August, UN Security Council discussions on extending the mandate of the UNIFIL force in Lebanon enter their final stretch. This year’s talks are overshadowed by the heightened security tensions on Israel’s northern borders, including the foiled Hezbollah attack at Mt. Dov, and in particular, the Beirut port blast, which inflicted thousands of casualties, laid waste to much of the city, and brought down the Lebanese government. The security tension has provided ample proof of the holes in the security regime in...
The series of explosions that shook the Lebanese capital on August 4, 2020 and killed well over a hundred people, injured several thousand, and caused massive physical damage exacerbated Lebanon’s already dire straits. Presumably the disaster will have an impact on Hezbollah domestically, and it least in the short term, affect its struggle with Israel. Indeed, it is likely that the current tension between Hezbollah and Israel will ebb and be postponed to a later date, given the organization’s need to attend to internal developments...
In January 2020, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) hosted its 13th Annual International Conference. Entitled “Strategic Assessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade,” the conference included discussions, simulations, and lectures on strategic issues important to Israel’s national security. The conference was attended by decision makers, opinion leaders, and leading researchers from Israel and abroad. We invite you to read the digital version of the booklet that summarizes the conference...
The challenges facing Hezbollah have intensified recently on three fronts. Domestically, Lebanon faces economic collapse, the Hezbollah-led government demonstrates incompetence, and violent demonstrations against the government and economic elites have resumed around the country, and now include direct criticism of the organization and demands for its disarmament. Internationally, there is greater pressure on the organization and its partners on the Shiite axis, including the recent adoption by the US Congress of the Caesar Act. For...
A new security challenge has emerged from Lebanon: Sudanese trying to cross the Blue Line into Israeli territory in search of work. In May 2020, the IDF prevented three incidents involving ten infiltrators, and in mid-June, one was captured on the outskirts of the town of Shlomi, in northern Israel. In addition, there were at least four cases reported in which close to twenty would-be infiltrators were captured by the Lebanese army, some with the help of UNIFIL, as well as one case of a Sudanese who was found shot to death deep in...
The IDF withdrawal from Lebanon 20 years ago and the renewed deployment along the UN-recognized international border was a unilateral move by Israel, welcomed by the international community. By contrast, the application of Israeli sovereignty over territory in the West Bank, also a unilateral move, will be the annexation of disputed territory between Israel and the Palestinians, and there is a broad consensus among leading international elements of its illegality. Three critical parameters of Israel’s exit from Lebanon may shed light...
