2016 was the deadliest year in suicide terrorism, a main weapon of deterrence and one of the most effective tools for promoting the political goals of terrorist organizations since its use began in the early 1980s. This past year, 469 suicide bombings were carried out by 800 perpetrators in 28 countries, causing the deaths of about 5,650 people. The Islamic State continues to be the leading perpetrator of suicide bombings in the world, and in 2016 was directly or indirectly responsible (through organizations that swore allegiance...
The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the...
The essay focuses on cognitive warfare and analyzes the changes that have occurred in the map of threats in recent years. In addition to kinetic weapons, the effect of the cognitive warfare waged by states and non-state organizations on the internet and the social networks has come to the fore in recent years. The author therefore recommends that the IDF invest carefully in force buildup and develop a range of capabilities in the cognitive arena on the internet and other communications media, together with a buildup of kinetic...
The United States’ stature as a leading global power in the Middle East has eroded in recent years. The administration’s decision to play a reactive rather than a proactive role in the Middle East created a vacuum in the region that was filled by elements that worked against the interests of the United States and its regional allies. The new US administration will be under the scrutiny of the international community, and the first steps that it takes will have critical implications for the way in which the various actors in the...
On July 28, 2016, the al-Qaeda leadership gave its blessing to the announcement by its Syrian branch, Jabhat al-Nusra, that it was changing the local organization’s name to Jabhat Fateh a-Sham (Front for the Conquest of Syria). With the name change comes the severance of all affiliations with any external groups, and as such, the organization’s formal alliance with al-Qaeda. However, it is clear that al-Qaeda, under Ayman al-Zawahiri’s leadership, does not truly intend to relinquish its influence in the Syrian arena. Notwithstanding...
It is now clear to France that it is in the midst of an all-out war against the threat of terror from both internal and external sources. The assessment by the French of their security situation stems from their concern about additional attacks planned by either terrorist networks or individuals, some of whom are driven by external organized directives, particularly from the Islamic State. There is a fundamental debate underway in France between two schools of thought. One argues that the current wave of terrorist attacks derives...
The threat posed by the Islamic State to many nations has led to the formation of an international coalition whose forces have been bombing Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria. Some of the bombings in Syria have targeted the strongholds of the Khorasan group. Very little is known about this group. It appears to be an international terrorist cell that settled in Syria under the cover of the country’s chaos in order to plan attacks against the West and train its members to carry them out. In September 2014, the United States...
The discourse on the root causes of the Boko Haram domestic terrorism group rages on in Nigeria, as extremists continue to lure destitute militants to their cause. Counter-terrorism needs to focus its efforts on eradicating the breeding grounds for these impoverished sympathizers. A new strategy and a new method should be adopted to prevent the threat of domestic terrorism. Fighting domestic terrorism with human development, specifically social and economic development, should emerge as a new public narrative and long-term objective...
Meir Elran suggests that robust intelligence, strong resistance and protection measures, with enhanced societal resilience, are key lessons that Europe can take from Israel’s counter-terrorism experience.
For full article see in Crisis Response Journal
The recent attempts in Brussels by members of the Islamic State to sabotage and gain access to material and know-how in the nuclear realm highlight the urgency of the threat of nuclear terrorism, and underscore that the international community must do its utmost at the national, regional, and global levels to deny the terrorists that possibility. Against the backdrop of the highly unstable situation in the Middle East, and the fact that the Islamic State has supporters in most Arab countries, there is reason to be concerned about the...
This essay discusses the lessons learned from the major failures in intelligence work in Israel vis-à-vis the prime minister and the security cabinet since before the Yom Kippur War, the relative progress made since then in integrating all the elements of the intelligence community in the decision making process, and the lapses that still remain. The essay proposes establishing a small staff body, a “Pluralistic Desk,” that will be directly subordinate to the prime minister and part of the Prime Minister’s Bureau. The head of this...
