Senior members of the security establishment have claimed that the current terrorist threat in Europe is unprecedented. This essay examines this claim against the background of the waves of terrorism that have plagued Europe over the last five decades, and specifically in light of the nature of the current threat and the response that it demands. The terrorist threat in Europe in recent years has focused primarily on Muslim Europeans and converts to Islam. These perpetrators are usually veterans of the wars in Iraq and Syria who...
Recent months have witnessed ongoing internal rifts and conflicts among the factions identified with al-Qaeda in Syria. The friction and rivalries have been linked to the question of loyalty to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri and to the ideology of the organization, and stand out against a background of reversals and upsets of recent years in the network of al-Qaeda’s alliances with partners throughout the Middle East. Events in Syria raise question marks regarding the unity of the al-Qaeda “camp” and the extent of...
In view of the public promise by senior Iranian spokespersons that Israel would soon weep over its soldiers just as Iran mourned its soldiers, it remains to be seen if and how Iran will retaliate against Israel’s recent broad counter-attack against Iranian targets in Syria: with what intensity, with what method, and in what location. However, notwithstanding declarations from Iranian leaders that ongoing Israeli actions against its forces and proxies will lead to the destruction of Haifa and Tel Aviv, it appears that Iran is not...
Depicted at 2018 Munich Security Conference is a challenging view of the global security environment, marked by a dangerous combination of worsening trends regarding the world’s climate, economy, and society; weakening strategic architectures; challenging technologies; and volatile crisis areas, led by North Korea and Syria. The Palestinian issue was marginalized, given its low influence on Middle East problems in general. Indeed, the Middle East is a secondary focus of attention for the international community, currently occupied...
For many years Iran has enjoyed close relations with Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip. For years this backing has taken primarily the form of military aid – weaponry and know-how for self-manufacturing and the training of personnel. This was complemented by financial assistance (hundreds of millions of dollars annually) and political backing in public events, in order to place the Palestinian issue on the global agenda.
Contemporary Salafi jihadist organizations and groups first emerged in the Gaza Strip in 2005. Their current number is unknown, but according to various estimates, there are only a few thousand members. As such, they are a marginal phenomenon in Hamas-ruled Gaza and do not pose a significant threat to Israel.
One of the most significant changes in Gaza over the past decade is without a doubt Hamas’s rise to power and the group’s consolidation of political, social, and military control of the Strip. Although as of late 2017 Hamas’s governance project remains in a precarious position, its authority over the Gaza Strip remains fundamentally unchallenged. Any long term policy proposal with respect to Gaza must take this reality into account and weigh the complex balance of power between Hamas and the other political factions and civilian...
Suicide attacks remain one of the most effective tools available to terrorist organizations to achieve their objectives. In 2017, 348 suicide attacks were carried out in 23 countries throughout the world by some 623 terrorists. This is the lowest number of suicide attacks since 2013. Approximately 4,310 people were killed and 6,700 people wounded in suicide attacks in 2017, and as in previous years, the Islamic State was the leading source of these attacks. Of those committing suicide attacks, 137 were women and girls – the highest...
During the final months of 2017, more than 600 people were killed in two terrorist attacks in Egypt and Somalia by two organizations that are allies of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. The large number of casualties caused by only two attacks indicates that notwithstanding announcements that the Islamic State and al-Qaeda have been defeated, the campaign against terrorism by Salafi jihadist activists is far from over.
In 2017, the major actors in the international arena continued the cautious policy of recent years: a limited investment of resources in the Middle East, based on the desire to avoid falling into regional cauldrons that continue to simmer, though mostly on a low flame. Among the principal events that preoccupied the international actors were the ongoing campaign against the Islamic State, the stabilization of the Bashar al-Assad regime, and the worsening Sunni-Shiite conflict, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Other important...
Seven years after the onset of the upheaval in the Middle East and two years since the implementation of the nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran, the main contours of the region’s emerging reality – including the actors, rivalries, partnerships, front lines, power relations, and behavior of the major powers – are becoming clear. Now, after nearly one full year at the Washington helm, the nature of the Trump administration and its influence on the domestic arena, the Middle East, and the global stage are also coming into...
As 2017 draws to a close, the Middle East is witnessing the convergence of several important developments that will potentially have a broad impact on Israeli national security. The civil war in Syria is subsiding through a process dominated by Russia, Iran, and Turkey – which poses the danger that Israel’s interests will not be taken into account in the deliberations and steps toward an agreement to stabilize the arena. The jihadist territorial Islamic State established in Iraq and Syria has been obliterated, although the underlying...
