The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the nuclear context provided by President Putin, who has elevated the nuclear alert of his forces, immediately returned the subject of nuclear deterrence to the agenda. Will the nuclear taboo be broken for the first time in 77 years, or will the balance of nuclear deterrence be maintained? The real risk involves the tactical weapons, and even there, the likelihood of use is low, despite fears that the Putin’s calculation of profits and losses will lead him to escalate the campaign.
The response by the United States to the Ukrainian crisis is focused on efforts to send military aid, maintain and strengthen coordination with allies in Europe and NATO, and intensify the economic and political isolation of Russia. It is too early to outline scenarios for ending the campaign and certainly to sum up the broader significance of the crisis for the US and the great power competition. However, in the coming months the administration intends to act more forcefully to strengthen the image of President Biden as a leader who...
Central Arab countries that are seen as pro-Western have chosen an ostensibly neutral position regarding the war in Ukraine. Several oil producers in the Gulf have gone even further and seek to take advantage of the war to improve their standing. Even though most Arab countries still see their relations with the United States as a central element of their security, they are concerned about the reduced US attention toward the Middle East in general and their security problems in particular, and are now trying to establish a new...
The sanctions led by the US and the EU include asset freezing of designated Russian persons and entities. Analysis of reported Russian investments abroad (USD 382 billion in 2020) suggests that the vast majority of Russian investments are in sanctioning countries, and particularly in Europe. Hence, the effectiveness of the asset-freezing depends on the efficacy of the authorities and financial sector, particularly in Europe. However, there are indications of underreporting of Russian investments worth about USD 90 billion to Western...
The human tragedy in Ukraine is painful, and there is still no mechanism for ending the war. The United States and NATO have defined an objective – imposing a heavy cost on Russia in order to deter Putin from future aggression, while at the same time managing the conflict wisely in order to stop its sliding into a third world war. In view of the escalation in fighting, the US and its allies must examine the consequences of a continued war: mounting civilian casualties, the danger of expansion beyond Ukrainian borders, and the...
Questions of the “what would have happened if” are irrelevant to historical research, unless they add a current perspective. Such a perspective exists insofar as Ukraine is not part of NATO or the European Union, unlike other European countries that were part of the Soviet bloc and were accepted into these organizations following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. And now, when parts of Ukraine have been captured by Russia, and two regions have even been recognized by Russia as independent, this question arises anew. The rigid...
The fighting in Ukraine invites some important conclusions regarding the use of force in the world taking shape before our eyes. This is the first clash between two militaries for a long time, and the Ukrainian army is not operating according to the concept of “conventional warfare,” but using an upgraded version of the war of the weak. On the other side, Vladimir Putin is caught in a trap, because although Russia is actually fighting in Ukraine, its real purpose is to create a new balance with the West, which is not part of the...
There seems to be no country in Europe where the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a greater systemic upheaval than in Germany. The invasion roused Germany from the illusions that have guided its dealings with Russia since the 1970s – the “Ostpolitik” (eastern) policy. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the unification of Germany, and the (apparent) disappearance of the Soviet threat created a sense of the end of history and the victory of the liberal West. Enjoyment of the “fruits of peace” became the motto of German policy,...
War is raging on Ukrainian soil, but the Russian forces have thus far failed to surround and isolate Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. The United States, Great Britain, and the European Union are fully coordinating their response, with a focus on three areas: economic and political isolation of Russia; the supply of military aid to Ukraine; and stepped-up military preparations among NATO countries. It is already clear that Russia’s action upsets the world order that has existed since the end of World War II, and is likely to cause...
President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Moscow reflects a strategic decision by the Iranian regime to strengthen ties with the East, at the expense of the trend of openness to the West led by President Hassan Rouhani. This reversal is a point of contention between the political currents in Iran. However, with the support of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the leading interests will continue to be an alternative to ties with the West, military strengthening, and political support in international institutions. Israel must take into...
The events surrounding the Ukraine crisis – irrespective of whether Russia continues to realize its threats to invade, or the NATO countries and Russia reach agreements that at least for now remove the threat of a Russian full-scale attack against Ukraine – already pose challenges to the international order that has existed for the past three decades. Similarly, they have direct and indirect, immediate and longer-term consequences for the Middle East in general, and for Israel in particular. In any case, and even if Israel prefers to...
The joint announcement by the presidents of China and Russia following their meeting on February 4, 2022 sharpens the conclusion that unlike in the first incarnation of the Cold War, where for the most part these two countries pursued different policies toward the United States, in the new version of this war they form a united front against it. The ideological dimension that separated them has been replaced by a set of fairly similar national-political economic and military interests. In the first round of the Cold War, when the...
