The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
The “Arab Spring” found al-Qaeda at its lowest point since the organization’s founding, a result of the global war on terrorism, which focused primarily on al-Qaeda. Yet the reverberations of the upheavals in the Arab world, which many thought would sound the organization’s death knell, actually proved to be its lifeline, because they led to regime destabilization and the toppling of national leaders who were among al-Qaeda’s worst enemies. In response to the civil war in Syria, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri identified Syria as...
A growing body of literature documents how Islamic extremist groups utilize technology to recruit potential new extremists. This back-end analysis is not matched, however, by the equally important frontend part of the process: How and why do these virtual propaganda/recruiting tools work on populations living in Western societies? Why are people susceptible to extremism while living in stable, free democracies? This paper fuses elements of cognitive psychology) specifically Siboni’s concept of the “first cognitive war”) and virtual...
This chapter spans four subjects. The first is an assessment of the national security situation in late 2018, as formulated by the Institute for National Security Studies. The second section focuses on core issues for early 2019 that should be debated by Israel’s military and political decision makers. The third section examines black swan events, strategically significant turning points that are unlikely to occur, but if they do occur, would be of utmost significance for Israel’s political and security situation. It is recommended...
The Palestinian political system is currently mired in a deep crisis owing to a host of intertwined and mutually reinforcing factors. The focal point is the crisis pertaining to the Gaza Strip and the serious deterioration there over the past year. In the current reality, there is no magic formula on the horizon to dispel the political, security, and humanitarian problems of the Strip and counter their negative implications for Israel’s relations with the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Palestinian political system is keenly mindful...
Each of the nearly eight years of civil war in Syria has been characterized by a central phenomenon or trend that influenced the development of the war and the future of the country. What began as a civil uprising in 2011 against the regime led by President Bashar al-Assad developed in 2012-2013 to a sectarian struggle of rebel organizations opposing the Assad regime, which is supported by Iran and Hezbollah. In 2014 the splits among the rebel factions continued along distinct sectarian and religious lines, with the dominance of...
2018 saw the continued perpetration of suicide attacks by global terror organizations, although for the third consecutive year, there was a decline in the number of suicide attacks committed in the world, and a decline in the number of people killed. Although the Middle East was still a frequent site of suicide attacks, for the first year Asia had the highest number of attacks, most of which were carried out in Afghanistan. Notwithstanding the Islamic State’s military defeat and loss of control over large areas in the Middle East,...
In the latest confrontation between Israel and Hamas, Israel’s policy was to offer sparse explanations to the public regarding the limited response to the Hamas attacks; this in turn allowed Hamas’s own interpretation of the events to dominate. As the Israeli public was not informed of the considerations behind the government’s restrained response, the sense of internal resilience was undermined. While Hamas won points in the cognitive battle, the Israeli public was embarrassed and disappointed; the political...
On December 4, 2018, the IDF launched Operation Northern Shield to destroy Hezbollah’s cross-border tunnels between Israel and Lebanon. The operation, following intelligence surveillance of a number of years. is underway via a well thought-out plan that combines intelligence exposure, engineering-based targeted action, and cognitive and diplomatic activity, all of which demonstrate clearly to Lebanon in general and Hezbollah in particular the aims and scope of the operation. The goal is both to minimize the risk of misunderstanding...
The Six Day War ended with a resounding military defeat for the Arab states. Indeed, in Israel’s War of Independence, the Arab armies failed in their efforts to stop the creation of the State of Israel, which at the end of the war held a larger area than it had been allotted by the UN Partition Plan. However, the Arab armies at that time were weak, and the lack of agreement among the Arab countries, which were ruled by the old regimes, prevented effective cooperation between them. In the 1956 Sinai Campaign, the Egyptian army was...
The Six Day War created a new reality in the Middle East, particularly in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. Already in the years before the war, there were defined Palestinian organizational frameworks, foremost among them Fatah and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). However, it was the military, territorial, and political outcome of the war and its complex and long term implications for relations between the Arab states and Israel that shaped the conditions for the growth of the Palestinian national movement. The strength...
Since its inception, Hezbollah has employed cognitive warfare as a force multiplier for its operations. The organization’s cognitive campaign is designed to encourage support for its actions while rebuffing verbal and media attacks, and to sow fear and deter enemies, with Israel chief among them. In explaining its military involvement in the civil war in Syria, Hezbollah has conducted a public opinion campaign in Lebanon in order to counter criticism at home for participation in a war not its own that has jeopardized the security of...
