The seventh issue of Over the Net looks at trends across the Arab world. The first part focuses on the discourse, albeit limited, about the three non-Arab countries in the Middle East: Israel, Iran, and Turkey. A thorough examination suggests that for various reasons, and possibly contrary to common assumptions, Arab citizens regard none of the three countries as an existential threat, in comparison with domestic problems or regional issues, such as the struggle against radical Sunni Islam and political Islam. The publication then...
The renewal of US sanctions against Iran in early August represents another blow to the Iranian economy, which has weakened steadily since the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018. The sale of gold and precious metals to Iran has been banned, as has the acquisition of dollars by the government of Iran and Iranian companies, and there are prohibitions in place on the sale of civilian aircraft to Iranian airline companies. These steps have reinforced the downfall of the Iranian currency and the...
The sixth issue of Over the Net reviews a number of trends that in recent months have been at the center of the discourse in the Arab world. It first addresses the “Marches of Return,” a series of events that took place adjacent to the border fence between the Gaza Strip and Israel over a period of approximately six weeks, between March 30 (Land Day) and May 15 (the Nakba). These events are examined here on three levels of the public discourse in Gaza: survival, ideology, and narrative. The second topic is the recent elections in...
This collection contains essays analyzing the state of Iran’s nuclear program and the deterrent relationship between the United States and Iran since the nuclear agreement was presented; Iran’s relations with specific Middle East states; and dominant political and social issues within Iran, and their influence on Iran’s foreign policy. These trends and developments constitute a changing strategic environment for Iran, which necessarily affects Iran’s geopolitical stature.
The war in Syria that began seven years ago is now on the brink of a new stage, as reflected in recent weeks by incidents on the various fronts. Inevitably, the complex fabric of interests among the many elements involved has resulted in conflicts and has renewed the sense of “all versus all.” During the events between Israel, Syria, and Iran on February 10, 2018, Russia worked to stop the escalation from becoming a violent round of fighting. The United States seemed at once present but absent; its voice was not heard...
Initial indications are that Iran has not yet operated the land corridor through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon to any significant extent; this impression has been bolstered by statements by the US Secretary of Defense. The reason seems to be Iran’s fear of attacks on convoys using the corridor, be they by US forces, the IDF, or Islamic State and Sunni elements. This fear will apparently continue in the future.
Suicide attacks remain one of the most effective tools available to terrorist organizations to achieve their objectives. In 2017, 348 suicide attacks were carried out in 23 countries throughout the world by some 623 terrorists. This is the lowest number of suicide attacks since 2013. Approximately 4,310 people were killed and 6,700 people wounded in suicide attacks in 2017, and as in previous years, the Islamic State was the leading source of these attacks. Of those committing suicide attacks, 137 were women and girls – the highest...
During the final months of 2017, more than 600 people were killed in two terrorist attacks in Egypt and Somalia by two organizations that are allies of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. The large number of casualties caused by only two attacks indicates that notwithstanding announcements that the Islamic State and al-Qaeda have been defeated, the campaign against terrorism by Salafi jihadist activists is far from over.
In 2017, the major actors in the international arena continued the cautious policy of recent years: a limited investment of resources in the Middle East, based on the desire to avoid falling into regional cauldrons that continue to simmer, though mostly on a low flame. Among the principal events that preoccupied the international actors were the ongoing campaign against the Islamic State, the stabilization of the Bashar al-Assad regime, and the worsening Sunni-Shiite conflict, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Other important...
Seven years after the onset of the upheaval in the Middle East and two years since the implementation of the nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran, the main contours of the region’s emerging reality – including the actors, rivalries, partnerships, front lines, power relations, and behavior of the major powers – are becoming clear. Now, after nearly one full year at the Washington helm, the nature of the Trump administration and its influence on the domestic arena, the Middle East, and the global stage are also coming into...
In a swift military campaign, the Iraqi government regained control of Kirkuk from the Kurds. This move was made possible when Iran, led by Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, reached an agreement between the leaders of the PUK – the political enemies of Masoud Barazani, President of the Kurdistan Regional Government – and the Iraqi government regarding withdrawal of the Peshmerga forces from Kirkuk. The loss of Kirkuk is a severe blow to the economy of the region and severely damages the ability of the Kurds to realize their...
