Beyond the immediate risk of releasing terrorists from Israeli prisons and allowing residents and Hamas militants to return to northern Gaza, the State of Israel is now facing a weighty challenge: preventing Hamas from rebuilding its strength amidst the destruction in Gaza during the current ceasefire. Israel must develop a robust contingency plan that will help mitigate risks if the ceasefire collapses or the hostage release plan is not fully implemented.
A series of operational successes provides Israel with the ideal opportunity to closely consider its exit strategy. Now, with these achievements accumulating, it is the right time to examine the question of ending the military campaign and securing its diplomatic benefits to improve Israel’s national security in every respect.
In recent weeks, Israel has achieved a series of successes, particularly on the northern front and in the Gaza Strip. Some of these achievements can be attributed to chance, such as the elimination of Hamas...
Israel has utilized its military action in the Gaza Strip and has successfully dismantled the military arm of Hamas. However, it has not achieved the release of the hostages, and it has not destroyed—or at least neutralized—Hamas’s control over Gaza. In response, several generals in the IDF reserves recently proposed a plan for taking control of northern Gaza, evacuating the civilian population, and laying siege to the area (the “Generals’ Plan”). While the plan contributes to the ongoing debate about the future control of Gaza, it...
As we mark one year since the war that began on October 7, 2023, it has become evident that Israel’s leadership sees only perpetual war on the horizon. This ongoing conflict benefits Israel’s enemies and aligns with Iran’s strategy of promoting a prolonged, multi-front war of attrition against Israel until its eventual collapse. So far, Israel has relied primarily on military and security measures without incorporating political strategies that could turn military successes into meaningful strategic change. Therefore, Israel’s...
Arab states can help advance a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, an agreement for the release of the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas, and an end to the war by adopting a resolute approach to Hamas. This approach, involving increased pressure, isolation, and delegitimization, should aim to undermine Hamas’s image and standing among the Arab public opinion. The proposed measures include media campaigns and public denunciations, legal sanctions, limitations on activity, and the promotion of an alternative religious discourse. These...
The Institute for National Security Studies conducted a simulation to examine an American–Arab framework for ending the war in Gaza, normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and forming a regional security-economic coalition. In the simulation, Hamas rejected the framework as long as it is capable of fighting and no alternative mechanism for governing Gaza is established. Israel responded positively to the framework despite the price required, such as advancing a political process toward a two-state-for-two-peoples...
Since the beginning of the war, the UN has been releasing reports and updates regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza, showing a dire picture of a shortage of humanitarian aid, a severe nutritional crisis, and even the spread of famine in the area. A close examination of these reports, based on the UN’s own clarifications, shows that they portray an inaccurate and partial picture of the aid entering the Gaza Strip. The reports are based on incomplete data from sources in Gaza and disregard significant portions of aid shipments...
In spite of the severe damage it has sustained, Hamas is expected to recruit more terrorists to replenish its ranks. The Israeli leadership is still debating whether to make a decision—the decision that will effectively determine the fate of the war, after some eight months. But against this background, critical questions are already emerging: What are the advantages and disadvantages of an Israeli military administration in Gaza? What are the implications of this scenario for the capabilities of the IDF? And what is the significance...
Israel is capable of subduing Hamas by drastically reducing its influence among the public it purports to represent and lead, by denying the “damage power” and veto power it holds. This requires the implementation of six efforts—military, civilian, political, humanitarian, regional cooperation and cognitive—in a cohesive and synchronized manner.
It is in Israel’s interest to link an agreement of normalization with Saudi Arabia to the kingdom’s involvement in the Palestinian arena, especially Riyadh’s commitment to the rehabilitation and administration of the Gaza Strip. However, Israel’s refusal to define a diplomatic horizon for resolving the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and the conditional and gradual incorporation of the Palestinian Authority in running Gaza could delay an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In the background, relations between the United States...
Preface
By Executive Director of INSS Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman
In the six months since October 7, despite the considerable operational achievements on the battlefield in the Gaza Strip, none of the war's objectives have yet been fully achieved. A total of 133 hostages are still being held in Gaza, and Hamas has not yet been decisively defeated. The war against Hamas is waning, as was expected at this stage, and even an operation in Rafah will not significantly change this trend. This decline in the war can lead to weariness,...
The results of the municipal elections that were held across Turkey on March 31 surprised many Turkish commentators because of the magnitude of the blow that voters delivered to the government. For the first time since it came to power, the party of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not finish in first place. In contrast, the opposition recorded a historic achievement. Not only did the opposition prevent Erdoğan-backed candidates from retaking control of Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, but it also recorded victories in many other...
