The results of the February 26, 2016 elections for the Iranian Majlis and Assembly of Experts was a first test of the leadership of President Hassan Rouhani since the signing of the JCPOA between Iran and the P5+1 and the subsequent lifting of sanctions. The results indicate a significant change, with the (relatively) moderate camp successfully challenging the power of the extremist conservatives. With regard to Israel, the major question remains whether the moderate camp’s electoral success under Rouhani’s leadership will lead to a...
On January 17-19, 2016, INSS held the latest conference in its annual conference series, “Security Challenges of the 21st Century.” The aim of this article is to bring together the key insights from the conference in a complete and coherent picture and use them as a basis for outlining policy recommendations to help the Israeli government contend with the challenges before it. • According to the situation assessment of Israeli policymakers, the current dangers stemming from the options that deviate from the status quo outweigh the...
International attention has recently been diverted from the civil war in Syria and the global struggle against the Islamic State by the escalation in the confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The recent actions by Saudi Arabia in the international arena – including an energy policy that is in sync with the drop in oil prices, the war in Yemen, declaration of the establishment of a coalition of Muslim countries to fight the Islamic State, hints of measures in the nuclear realm, and the attempt to create a Sunni Arab coalition...
The instability racking the Middle East of the past five years shows little sign of abatement, and every new conflict or war – between states and within states – constitutes another link in the chain of social, ideological, political, and territorial upheavals sweeping the region. With the Middle East thus having become a region marked primarily by violence, regional and international leaders must focus their attention on both defensive and offensive measures designed to reduce the potential for damage and destruction inherent in...
After months of an air-land military effort by the Russian-Iranian coalition in Syria, the integrated attack has been halted. The main goal of Iran’s intervention in the fighting in Syria is a strengthened Shiite Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah axis, built on the Alawite regime with its pro-Iranian orientation. For its part, Russia has other interests, and its preferred goal is a settlement that will give it a foothold and facilitate its influence in the Middle East, while putting an end to Western dominance in the region. Yet regardless...
Striving for regional hegemony is a fundamental element in Iran’s strategic conception. Up until now, this ambition has not translated into territorial expansion. Iran’s goals are to change the conditions of its strategic environment, bolster its status in the region, influence the region’s main processes, and motivate groups and powers to acknowledge Iranian interests in the region. This ambition, relating first and foremost to the Persian Gulf area, and broadly to the Middle East as a whole, can be attributed to several causes:...
The final stretch of the IAEA investigation into Iran’s past nuclear weaponization work – dubbed the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of Iran’s nuclear program – came in a two-part development earlier this month. This was in accordance with the timetable set forth by the JCPOA. The JCPOA did not require resolution of the PMD issue to the satisfaction of the IAEA for implementation of the agreement, including the removal of sanctions. It only demanded that a report be submitted. The upshot is that Iran was found guilty...
