The new government proposed by President Hassan Rouhani is the first significant evidence of his intentions, priorities, and limits of power. While forming his government, the President was forced to balance the opposing forces in the Iranian political system. The composition of the government reflects his wish to avoid open conflict with the religious establishment, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and his intention to place the economic crisis at the top of his government’s priorities, even at the expense of civic reforms....
The tension between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the Revolutionary Guards that was evident during the presidential election campaign has intensified in recent weeks. The conflicting versions of Iran’s missile strike against Islamic State targets in Syria and President Rouhani’s criticism of the Revolutionary Guards’ involvement in the economy have resulted in a fierce confrontation. Following a tempestuous election campaign, Rouhani has sought to take advantage of the public support he received to advance his policy, which...
Israel is monitoring the North Korean crisis and assessing its implications, particularly with respect to the Iranian nuclear program. There is concern exists that American restraint and continued provocative North Korean behavior would signal to Tehran that a country determined to cross nuclear red lines is able to do so, even in face of American opposition. Thus for Israel, it is necessary to resume a comprehensive dialogue with Washington, and to formulate a joint policy towards Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the risks incurred by...
Supported by the US-led coalition, Iraqi security forces are on the verge of liberating the city of Mosul from the Islamic State. Like the future conquest of Raqqa in Syria, the conquest of Mosul will make a significant contribution to the international effort to defeat the Islamic State. Still, the internal and regional clashes that have plagued Iraq over the past two decades and enabled the phenomenon of the Islamic State remain strong, and the trends of division and instability will presumably continue. Despite the rifts among...
The current race for control of territory in Syria now appears to be a competition between Iran and the United States, which have established two respective axes – with a vertical American (north-south) effort on the one hand, and a horizontal Iranian (east-west) effort on the other hand. In practice, this is another stage in the shaping of Syria in preparation for the day after the Islamic State. In the meantime, the country’s southwestern region, from Daraa to the Golan Heights, remains open for activity and influence by Israel and...
The results of the recent elections are the latest development in a line of defeats that Iran’s conservatives have suffered in recent years. The difficulty faced by the conservative right in its efforts to recruit the support of the Iranian public can be explained by the conservative failure to provide a relevant response to demands regarding economics and individual freedoms. The election results showed that it is not enough to scatter slogans or use social media to recruit public support. Yet as conservative elements continue to...
The terrorist attacks in the heart of Tehran pose a challenge to the Iranian regime, and require it to undertake a series of intelligence and operational measures in order to improve its ability to thwart further attacks. The Iranian leadership is trying to calm the public and reassure it of the regime’s ability to contain the events. While the Revolutionary Guards are expected to try to reinforce their capabilities (in part by obtaining an increased budget), it does not appear that this will be enough to alter the internal balance...
President Trump’s statements during his recent visit to the Middle East reflect a profound commitment to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. To this end, President Trump is demonstrating his desire to avoid the mistakes of the preceding administration, which was not successful in advancing an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Nevertheless, despite the different “spirit” that President Trump brings with him regarding the peace process, it is difficult to understand the basis of his firm belief in his ability to “close...
The recent presidential elections in Iran assured incumbent Hassan Rouhani of a second term after he gained approximately 57 percent of the vote. Certainly initially it appears that the elections will not change the face of Iran, and Supreme Leader Khamenei, who controls the main centers of power, will continue to dictate the foreign and security affairs agendas. On the issues directly relevant to Israel, such as continuation of the surface-to-surface missile program, ongoing aid to the Syrian regime, and Hezbollah, Hamas and...
On the eve of the Iranian presidential election, both leading candidates are working hard to maximize their chances of victory. Although the presidential function in Iran is limited mostly to economic issues, as the Supreme Leader decides security and foreign affairs matters and is directly responsible for the security apparatuses, the current election campaign is important, because the next four years could prove to be critical in deciding the identity of the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. If Raisi is victorious over...
The “Memorandum to Create De-escalation Zones in Syria,” signed in Astana, Kazakhstan on May 5, 2017 by Russia, Iran, and Turkey as guarantors of implementation, is the fourth attempt within just over a year to bring about a sustainable ceasefire in Syria. New this time is the establishment of four de-escalation zones in Syrian territory. The agreement is thus an attempt to shape the future in Syria, including areas where Israel and Jordan have very clear interests, yet thus far without consideration of these interests. As...
Visitors to Oman cannot help but be awed by the sultanate’s uniqueness, a critical component in the maintenance of its stability. But the current economic crisis and possible succession crisis are liable to test this stability in the not so distant future. For nearly half a century, Sultan Qaboos used his ability to mediate and balance hostile neighbors as the key to his foreign policy. His successor can be expected to maintain this delicate hedging strategy, motivated purely by the will to survive in a hostile neighborhood. But...
