Since October 7, Russia has sided with Hamas, refuses to condemn the murderous terror attack that the organization perpetrated in the western Negev, and has questioned Israel’s right to defend itself. Russia’s behavior should underscore to Israel the need to change its policy toward the Kremlin and to stand firmly with Western nations, under the leadership of the United States.
The Russian Wagner Group (the private military company “Wagner”) was formed in 2014. Despite Russian law prohibiting the establishment of private armies, the group operated together with the government and with its approval. Its goal was to advance Russia’s political interests via military means, at the behest of the government and without public approval. The group also operated for the economic benefit of its director, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a business figure from the Russian underground.
Over the years, the Wagner Group conducted...
The plane crash that killed Yevgeny Prigozhin raises several questions about the Russian establishment: What is the future of the Wagner Group? Is the Russian defense establishment stronger in the aftermath of the crash? Has President Putin regained the control and honor lost in the mutiny by the Wagner Group in late June? Apparently in the short term, the regime’s deterrence will indeed work. It is doubtful, however, that it will suffice as the basis for running a country – especially given the situation that currently engulfs...
The invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated Russia’s demographic crisis: military recruitment and a wave of emigration have aggravated the reality of the low birthrate and life expectancy. The population is shrinking and its composition has changed. Young educated men are leaving, and Ukrainian refugees, most of whom are elderly, women, or children, have arrived. Under Vladimir Putin, Russia has invested much effort to address the demographic crisis, but with little success. Now that the country is embroiled in the war in Ukraine, it...
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Russian mercenaries, known as the Wagner Group, while comprising a relatively small part of the Russian forces in general, played an important role in Russia’s war against Ukraine, not only thanks to their military skills, but also due to Prigozhin’s political and media capabilities. Indeed, they have influenced the battlefield and the situation within Russia. On June 23, 2023, increasing friction between Prigozhin, who emerged during the war as an independent anti-establishment political player (he has no formal...
Russian dependence on Iran has deepened over the past few months, reflected in a variety of developments in security, foreign policy, and economic realms, in which Moscow increased its support for Iranian interests. Tightened relations, and especially Iranian assistance to Russia in the framework of Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine, indicate that the cooperation between the two countries is not just tactical; rather, it reflects a strategic decision by both sides. This development not only directly impacts Iranian force buildup and...
On the eve of the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine that erupted in February 2022, and even more so in the course of the war, many private companies, at their own initiative, adopted an active stance on the conflict in two main spheres: sending direct and intensive aid to Ukraine, and curbing or ceasing operations in Russia. These measures have an impact on the economic situation on both sides of the conflict, as well as on the course of the war. This is an important and partly new phenomenon that could have implications for...
Russia is known to figure prominently among economic and foreign policy considerations of Arab states, notwithstanding the failures of the Russian army in the war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on it. For the Arab Gulf states, Russia is primarily an essential partner for regulation of energy prices, influence over Iran, and leverage vis-à-vis the United States. Moscow for its part uses these Arab states’ need for close relations to enhance its presence and influence in the Middle East, and to reduce the isolation and toll of...
On March 17, 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants against Russian President Vladimir Putin and a senior member of his government on suspected charges of committing war crimes by unlawfully deporting and transferring children from Ukraine to Russian territory. This marks the first time that the ICC has issued arrest warrants as part of its investigation into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and it is expected that further proceedings will be initiated over additional war crimes. This is a...
The war between Russia and Ukraine has seen extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including many unmanned aircraft produced by Iran. As the war enters its second year, it offers Israel a good opportunity to study enemy technologies and prepare accordingly, not via forecasts or wargames but through actual – and alarming – occurrences. The use of UAVs by non-Western parties as an alternative to an air force, along with the lethal attacks on civilians in Ukraine and the extensive collateral damage caused by UAVs, is highly...
Current Situation – Great power competition · Struggle over world order · Technology core issue · Potential escalation (Ukraine, Taiwan) · Less collaboration · Middle East lower priority | Current Israeli Strategy – “Between the raindrops” maneuver · Rely on the US while advancing relations with other powers | Recommended Strategy – Alternative 2: Strengthen the US strategic mainstay · Stand by the US as a member of the Western camp · Pursue differential foreign policy, adjusted to era of great power competition
