The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
Eight years after a series of uprisings erupted across the Middle East, there is a debate whether a relatively stable order (old or new) has taken hold in the Middle East, or whether the region remains unstable and, therefore, will continue to produce waves of unrest. At its heart, this debate reflects conflicting assessments of the regimes’ abilities to manage what few would argue are fundamental economic problems and identity-related crises that have gone largely unresolved and, in some cases, worsened. For decision makers in...
After a string of achievements in the Middle East and the start of an economic recovery following the removal of the sanctions, Iran was confronted in 2018 with growing external and domestic challenges. These challenges undermine the strategic stability that was the basis for Iranian policy in recent years, particularly since the nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA) was achieved.
These challenges are evident in all the areas relevant to Iran’s strategic situation. In the internal arena, the ongoing...
The Red Sea, and particularly its southern section surrounding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, has in recent years become the site of competition and struggle among regional actors and superpowers alike. In addition to the states along the coast of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, the US, China, Turkey, Iran – which is involved in the war in Yemen – and sub-state actors have a presence there. Thus far there have been no disruptions to Israeli shipping and flight paths, which connect Israel to the Indian Ocean, the Far East, and Africa....
In 2017, the major actors in the international arena continued the cautious policy of recent years: a limited investment of resources in the Middle East, based on the desire to avoid falling into regional cauldrons that continue to simmer, though mostly on a low flame. Among the principal events that preoccupied the international actors were the ongoing campaign against the Islamic State, the stabilization of the Bashar al-Assad regime, and the worsening Sunni-Shiite conflict, especially between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Other important...
When embarking on the war in Yemen, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman promised a rapid decisive victory over the Houthis and the Iranians (Operation Decisive Storm). So far, however, and was proven again with the assassination of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Saudi Arabia has encountered serious difficulties in defeating a determined enemy on its own doorstep. Even if the internal and external pressures on the Houthis grow stronger, their determination and that of their Iranian allies to continue the military...
The nuclear agreement with Iran has sparked much concern about the financial resources Iran will have at its disposal once the sanctions are lifted. Most experts agree that the agreement has not prompted Iran to change its fundamental political or ideological approach and that it will continue to support its regional proxies, try to expand its sphere of influence in the Middle East, oppose the influence of the United States and the West in the region, and continue to show extreme hostility toward Israel. Presumably, then, Iran will...
It has been a long time since Arab countries managed to unite for the sake of taking substantive action, especially military, in order to defend their own interests. However, Iran’s efforts to penetrate various arenas and expand its influence throughout the region are an ominous threat to at least some Arab states. Therefore, one can already speak of a collective Arab achievement in light of the Arab nations’ ability to come together to deal with the inherent threat of increased Iranian influence in the region. The Saudi-led...
Ethnic, political, and religious rifts make Yemen one of the most complex arenas in the Middle East, even more so following the eruption of the Arab Spring, which in November 2011 ended the 33-year regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The disintegration of the delicate political balance Saleh created has brought Yemen to the brink of an abyss with competing elites, ethnic revolts, separatists, external intervention and fundamentalist terrorism threatening to divide the country while hindering the new regime’s attempts to build a...
On the eve of the fourth year of unrest and instability in the Middle East, Yemen is on the verge of its own abyss. Elite power struggles, sectarian rebellions, tribal clashes, growing separatism, and Islamic fundamentalist terrorism have converged to create a chaotic reality in which alliances form and dissolve at a feverish pace. The intensification of the Houthi rebellion in recent months has heightened the sectarian dimension of the country’s internal clash. Thus while the eyes of the international community remain focused...
A recently captured document written by the commanderof al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (al-Qaeda in Hijaz) reviews theorganization’s strategy in 2011-2012, when operatives seized control of severalprovinces in the southern part of Yemen. It reveals the organization’s internaldebate regarding its relationship with the local Yemeni population,deliberations that were prompted by the organization’s drive to gain popularsympathy and support in its fight against the Sana’a government. The documentoffers a rare glimpse into the mindset...
Although for the most part the Arab Spring has not had a major impact on countries that over the past twenty years have experienced extended civil war or deep internal polarization, Yemen is a notable exception. The civil unrest that has gripped the nation since January 2011, inspired by the upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world, has intensified existing trends and accelerated processes liable to lead to state failure. The hope had been that Saleh’s resignation as president would contain the Yemeni revolution and, more importantly,...
