Events of recent weeks in both nearby and distant arenas have reshuffled the cards vis-à-vis the state of affairs in the Gaza Strip. The result has been the emergence of possible conditions for change – that is, if Israel takes advantage of them through cooperation with Egypt and the Gulf states. Recent developments have created circumstances and constraints for the actors in the arena that can potentially be leveraged as strategic opportunities to reshape the Gaza arena. Cooperation between Israel, Egypt, and the Gulf states,...
The prospect of Israel normalizing its relations with Arab states is an enticing idea that anyone who cares about Israel or the region should want to see realized. Arab strategic interests are aligning with Israel’s; some Arab leaders’ attitudes toward Israel are changing; and the Arab desire to see an Israeli-Palestinian deal remains strong. Nevertheless, the vision of Israel normalizing its relations with Arab states without the agreement of the Palestinians is fanciful, and even modest steps toward normalization will require...
The Second Lebanon War broke out on July 12, 2006, without either Israel or Hezbollah intending this escalation. However, the abduction of IDF soldiers that day by a Hezbollah cell created a new reality in the north that prompted Israel to embark on a military operation, which ultimately became a war. The course of the war and its outcomes strongly affected subsequent internal and external Israeli, Lebanese, and regional processes. Hindsight provides an opportunity to examine the war and its ramifications from a broader and more...
President Trump’s statements during his recent visit to the Middle East reflect a profound commitment to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. To this end, President Trump is demonstrating his desire to avoid the mistakes of the preceding administration, which was not successful in advancing an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Nevertheless, despite the different “spirit” that President Trump brings with him regarding the peace process, it is difficult to understand the basis of his firm belief in his ability to “close...
The severing of relations between Qatar and the Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, on the grounds that Qatar has been supporting terrorism, which follows on the heels of President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, will have serious regional implications. Closing Qatar’s sea and air space and the land border with Saudi Arabia are tantamount to casus belli and could lead to chaos in the emirate if not solved soon. Isolating Qatar will also have serious regional implications on Israel and the Palestinian arena. Qatar is one...
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India recently compared his country’s cross-border response against terrorists in Pakistan— following the attack in Uri in Indian-administered Kashmir—to Israel’s pre-emptive and retaliatory raids across its borders. This has given rise to serious debate about whether it is desirable for India to adopt Israeli military strategy. A country’s history, political culture, and dominant discourse of national security greatly influence policymakers and their communities. With that in mind, in this article, it...
President Trump’s first trip outside the United States eclipses – to a degree – the attention on events underway in the American domestic arena. The royal welcome the President received in Saudi Arabia and his meetings with a long list of Arab and Muslim leaders provide him with numerous accomplishments: the image of the authoritative leader of a superpower; the demonstration of a united front against Iran and the Islamic State; and success in fulfilling his promise to improve the American economy. Trump also intends to try to...
Hamas’s new statement of principles, issued in early May 2017, is meant to challenge Fatah’s traditional control of the PLO in particular and the Palestinian national arena in general, and present a political approach rivaling that of PA head Mahmoud Abbas. The document is more political than ideological, and the essential difference between the updated statement of principles and the original Hamas charter is the weight given to the national Palestinian component versus the Islamic aspect. Hamas remains a terrorist organization that...
In mid April 2017, Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke in the Knesset about the outbreak of Operation Protective Edge in 2014, contrary to the intentions and efforts of the government, and on Israel’s alternatives: the undesired political option (settlement with Hamas) and the military option not chosen (occupation of Gaza). The remarks take on particular relevance in view of today’s rapidly growing pressures in the Gaza Strip, and the increasing danger of a renewed outbreak of hostilities, which Israel does not want. In the...
For Israel’s right wing Israeli government, the Trump administration is easier to work with than the Obama administration, both with regard to continued limited construction in settlements and the apparent lack of objection to construction in Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. Nevertheless, the way that Netanyahu is handling the contacts with the Trump administration is liable to lead to another missed opportunity to solidify, together with the United States, the idea that in any solution, the settlement blocs close to the Green...
Results from the most recent INSS public opinion poll on issues related to national security show that 56 percent of the Israeli Jewish public believe that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the major threat facing Israel (21 percent believe a nuclear Iran is the major threat; 12 percent – Hezbollah; and 11 percent – the Islamic State). While the two-state solution to the conflict has become somewhat less popular than in previous years, support remains ongoing and significant, despite the deadlock in the political process; the...
When the Netanyahu government replaced the Olmert government and Barack Obama assumed the United States presidency, the Palestinians adopted an “internationalization strategy.” This choice reflected the Palestinian skepticism about the possibility of bridging the gaps with Israel and the hope that the international community would accept their tripartite demand: (1) establishment of a Palestinian state (2) on the basis of the 1967 borders (3) with East Jerusalem as its capital. The consolidation of the new administration in the...
