The tide is changing in the Syrian civil war.Bashar al-Assad and his regime are gaining momentum, the opposition isweakening, and some of its major traditional supporters seem to bereconsidering their position. These new trends influence the options availableto those advocating transition to a more democratic and moderate regime inSyria as well as those who are primarily interested in the stability of thecountry and the region. As matters stand now, there does not seem to be amilitary solution, certainly not a desirable one,...
The wave of uprisings that swept through Arab states in recent years has transformed the Middle East. Against this background, there is a need for a comprehensive analytical model to help assess both the likelihood of regime stability and the probability of regime change. This study proposes a model to identify the key elements that encourage or inhibit regime change. Assigning numerical weight to each of these elements, it analyzes the dynamics between them. Looking at case studies of four states through the prism of the proposed...
Over the past two years the Syrian conflict hasevolved from non-violent political demonstrations into a militarized,sectarian, and prolonged civil war. Furthermore, massive external involvementin the internal war has turned Syria into a proxy regional war. This is notonly because of the major humanitarian crisis triggered by the conflict and theeconomic and political pressure Syria’s neighbors face in seeking toaccommodate the growing influx of refugees, but also because the war in Syriarisks destabilizing the entire Middle...
Although the formal map of the Middle Easthas not changed since the onset of the so-called Arab Spring (with theexception of Sudan), the old borders do not reflect the reality on the ground.As a result of the regional upheavals, tribal, sectarian, and ethnic identitieshave become more pronounced than ever, which may well lead to a change in theborders drawn by the colonial powers a century ago that have since beenpreserved by Arab autocrats. The changes to date have occurred inside theexisting borders, but this may change. States are...
The Syrian conflict haslong since descended into a protracted and bloody civil war, with the regimeand the diverse groups that comprise the opposition locked in a painfulstalemate, unable to tip the military balance of power in anyone’s favor. TheGeneva 2 negotiations, reportedly scheduled to take place in late November2013, should be seen in light of this reality, underscoring the importance ofending the conflict through a political deal. Indeed, the notion of renewingthe efforts launched in Geneva in June 2012 has gained...
Between PresidentObama’s August 31, 2013 declaration on a retaliatory action against Syria andthe abandonment of the attack option in exchange for dismantlement of Syria’schemical weapons program, a dramatic change has taken place in the balance ofpower among the parties battling for the future of Syria. In an ironic if notabsurd development, the diplomatic agreement has granted President Assadlegitimacy, and made him a partner of sorts to the international community inimplementing the resolution on Syria’s chemical...
The Geneva agreement on the destruction ofSyria’s chemical weapons arsenal has been signed. The significant differencesof opinion between the United States (and France and Britain) and Russia duringthe decision making process in the UN Security Council on the relevantresolution that was approved indicate that there are still numerous obstaclesto implementation of the historic decision, and that it is too early toconsider the task completed. Yet even if a US recourse to military action ifSyria fails to fulfill the agreement is...
The tenth annualconference of the Valdai Discussion Club, which took place on September 16-19, 2013, was attended by experts and media professionals whofocus on Russia, as well as senior Russian establishment figures andpolicymakers. The international gathering traditionally serves as a nationalforum of sorts for discussing a range of topics that lead Russia’s nationalagenda. Since its inception, the project has been under the direct sponsorshipof President Putin, who views it as an important channel for Russia’sleadership to...
The agreement on Syria’s chemical weapons is all sewn up. It appears that the United States was determined to reach an agreement only if it met strict criteria on all the substantive issues related to disarming Syria of its chemical weapons. If implemented, the significance of this comprehensive agreement is that four parties will emerge victorious from the crisis in a win-win-win-win situation. Nevertheless, there are also two casualties of the agreement. One is justice and morality, as the superpowers have chosen not to get...
The comment by Secretaryof State John Kerry at a press conference in London on September 9, 2013,whereby the government of Syria could avoid a US punitive strike by placing itsstores of chemical weapons under international control, has led to a politicalsolution to the Syrian chemical weapons crisis. The idea was adopted almostimmediately by Russia, which transformed it into a plan to destroy Syria’schemical weapons and have Syria join the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russiacalled upon Syria to endorse the proposal, and soon...
When taking crucial decisions, nations strike a balance between moral, strategic, and legal considerations. In response to the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons in the August 21, 2013 attack that killed over 1,000 civilians, the United States is considering launching a limited military strike against Syria. However, absent authorization by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the international legal basis underlying such a military operation is far from clear-cut. This article analyzes briefly the formal legal...
President Obama has decided on punitive action of limited scope and duration in order to deter the Assad regime from further use of chemical weapons. Many commentators in Israel and abroad have questioned this decision, noting that over 110,000 people, most of them civilians, have already been killed in the Syrian civil war, and the US took no military action whatsoever to stop the slaughter. This article explains why the use of chemical weapons is indeed a different form of aggression, and why it requires a special response.
