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Publications on Syria

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Interactive Map: Operation Northern Arrows and the Ceasefire Agreement in Lebanon (November 2025)
The map highlights the five IDF outposts located north of the Blue Line and marks areas where ceasefire violations have been recorded. Additionally, it documents Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Hezbollah attacks on Israel during the Swords of Iron War, including Operation Northern Arrows. The map is continuously updated as accurately as possible, based on open-source intelligence assessments and media reports.
Stephane Cohen | Mora Deitch | Orna Mizrahi | Ester Batz | Hannah Bettan
10.03.2025
Policy Papers
An International Mechanism for Stabilizing and Shaping the New Syria
With the rise of an Islamist regime in Syria, a new reality has emerged that presents both risks and opportunities for Israel. Although Iran has been pushed out of Syria, it is expected to attempt to renew its presence there. Meanwhile, Turkey is playing a central role in Syria, a development that could lead to political and military friction with Israel—potentially escalating in an extreme scenario to direct military confrontation. At the same time, Turkey is likely the only actor with both the motivation and capability to deploy...
Chuck Freilich
09.03.2025
INSS Insight
Despite Efforts to Remain in Syria, Russia Is Losing Its Status as an Important Security Actor in the Middle East
Russia emerged as the most dominant political and military force in Syria when it sent its troops to support the Assad regime at the height of the civil war in September 2015. However, with the downfall of the Assad regime, Russia now finds itself in a weakened position vis-à-vis the rebel forces. Until recently, Russia had launched airstrikes against them and classified them as terrorists; now it is dependent on the same rebels to ensure the security of its soldiers and its remaining military assets in Syria, while hoping that the...
Georgy Poroskoun
27.01.2025
Database
Interactive Map: Control Zones in the Syrian Arena (Prior to the U.S. Withdrawal, January 2026)
On December 8, following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Israel launched Operation Arrow of Bashan in Syria. During the operation, the IDF operated in the buffer zone and took control of the peak of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side. At the same time, at least 136 Israeli airstrikes were carried out across the country, 65% of them targeting the western regions, including Damascus, Daraa, and Latakia. According to the IDF spokesperson, these strikes resulted in the destruction of 70%–80% of the Assad regime’s military...
Stephane Cohen | Mora Deitch | Carmit Valensi
26.01.2025
INSS Insight
A Pivotal Player: Jordan and the New Syria
The overthrow of the regime in Syria presents Jordan with an array of challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the Hashemite Kingdom is worried about instability on its northern border, the possibility that Iranian influence will be replaced by a Turkish one, and the export of Islamist revolutionary fervor from Syria to Jordan. On the other hand, it recognizes an opportunity to block the drug and arms smuggling routes between Syria and Jordan, return the Syrian refugees in Jordan to their homeland, and promote economic cooperation...
Ofir Winter
12.01.2025
Policy Papers
A New Era in Syria: Winners, Losers, and Implications for Israel
The developments in Syria present Israel with both new challenges and potential opportunities. The uncertainty surrounding the policy of the new regime under Ahmed al-Sharaa and the evolving situation on the ground necessitate that Israel maintain a high level of military readiness to cope with emerging threats, the unclear intentions of key actors—including Turkey—and the potential re-establishment of the Iran–Hezbollah axis within Syria. At the same time, al-Sharaa’s restrained statements regarding Israel, the presence of moderate...
Carmit Valensi
12.01.2025
Policy Papers
Developments in Syria—Significance for Israel
The dramatic events unfolding in Syria create a window of opportunity for Israel to enhance its security situation by intensifying the damage to Iran and its Axis of Resistance and aiming to fragment the continuity of the axis and make any future recovery difficult. From Israel’s perspective, unlike in previous cases, the events in Syria are supported by a series of favorable developments that have emerged over the past year. These developments provide Israel with the opportunity to leverage its achievements against the Axis of...
Carmit Valensi
16.12.2024
INSS Insight
The Rebel Offensive in Syria: Strategic Shift or Fleeting Incident?
The surprise attack by rebel forces against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is currently shaking the already fragile Syrian arena. Within just a few days, the rebel organizations managed to take control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, while engaging in widespread attacks on regime forces and their supporters—without effective resistance from the regime, as was the case during the Syrian civil war. Turkey, which supports the rebels, apparently gave them the green light to launch the offensive and is hoping to...
Carmit Valensi | Raz Zimmt | Gallia Lindenstrauss | Arkady Mil-Man
04.12.2024
INSS Insight
Assad and the Axis of Resistance: A Tense Partnership Put to the Test
Over the past decade, Iran and Hezbollah have consolidated their military presence in Syria as part of their joint vision of creating Shiite territorial continuity in the region and utilizing the country as a theater of conflict against Israel. Nevertheless, since the beginning of the Swords of Iron war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has refrained from directly intervening in the multi-front war against Israel, fearing that such intervention would be detrimental to his survival and position. Assad has also recently restricted the...
Carmit Valensi | Mika Naftali
28.11.2024
INSS Insight
Captagon: Assad’s Economic Lifeline and Diplomatic Card
After restoring his status in the Arab world and emerging from the political isolation imposed on Syria with the outbreak of the civil war, Bashar al-Assad continues to benefit from the revenues of the Captagon drug trade, which is produced in Syria and floods the Middle East. The Captagon trade poses risks to Israel, as it is a significant source of funding for the regime, Hezbollah, and other Shiite proxy organizations, as well as by using drug smuggling routes to transfer weapons from Jordan to the West Bank and Gaza Strip....
Carmit Valensi | Tal Avraham
21.07.2024
INSS Insight
Syria and the Israel-Hamas War: Symbolic Support, Short of Escalation
Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Israel has become engaged in a multi-front conflict with forces that have attacked from Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. In contrast, apart from a few incidents executed mainly by Palestinian groups, it does not appear that an active front against Israel is forming in Syria. Although the mood in Syria is generally supportive of the Palestinians (alongside criticism of President Bashar al-Assad, the axis of resistance, and the international community), Assad is not interested in supporting Hamas, as the...
Carmit Valensi | Tal Avraham
24.12.2023
Memoranda
The Campaign between Wars at a Crossroads - CBW, 2013-2023: What Lies Ahead?
The Campaign Between Wars (CBW) is the term given to the IDF’s significant offensive activity over the past decade. What began in 2013 as specific, targeted actions with limited objectives, developed into an extensive campaign in physical and geographical terms and was anchored in the IDF operations approach, with far-reaching strategic ramifications. CBW did indeed demonstrate advanced capabilities in intelligence and aerial action. But at the end of a decade and in view of significant changes in the region, there is a need to...
Ofer Shelah | Carmit Valensi
13.11.2023
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