The relationship between the EU and China has been complex and evolving since they established formal ties, due to the European Union’s apprehensive approach to China, with a mixture of both excitement and concern at once. The European Union understands the limitations of its influence on China. At the same time, the European Union also understands that it must set achievable goals in each of its three-dimensional strategy phases in its relations with China: “cross-border” threats, economic competition, and systemic rivalry.
The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded its quarterly meeting held on March 4–8, and once again no resolution was adopted against Iran. This is despite the IAEA report leaving no doubt that Iran is vigorously advancing its nuclear program and preventing the agency from exercising its oversight responsibilities. The United States and European countries reacted strongly to the report but refrained from demanding that the Board of Governors take practical action against Iran; however, they...
In recent months, France has weathered a wave of severe violence rooted in Islamic radicalization. The tentative and inconsistent government response has increased public outrage and strengthened the far-right parties. Mass demonstrations by Hamas supporters have triggered antisemitic violence, and the attempt to present a united front in the fight against antisemitism was met with President Macron’s indecisive stance and the left’s refusal to condemn Hamas. Domestic considerations have also influenced the President’s viewpoint on...
Current Situation – Great power competition · Struggle over world order · Technology core issue · Potential escalation (Ukraine, Taiwan) · Less collaboration · Middle East lower priority | Current Israeli Strategy – “Between the raindrops” maneuver · Rely on the US while advancing relations with other powers | Recommended Strategy – Alternative 2: Strengthen the US strategic mainstay · Stand by the US as a member of the Western camp · Pursue differential foreign policy, adjusted to era of great power competition
President Putin’s decision to annex four regions of Ukraine and his definition of his struggle against the Western elites as an existential struggle, while avowing his determination to defend the annexed territories and making implicit threats about the possibility of using unconventional weapons, significantly increase the risk of escalation. Consequently, the United States and its allies are now at a crossroads. It seems that Russia’s conduct will compel them to formulate a follow-up strategy that will heighten the...
The results of the recent elections to the French National Assembly are a serious failure for French President Emmanuel Macron. Less than two months after he was reelected, he failed to achieve a majority – creating a political situation that had not occurred in many years. The new situation will require the political actors to change their behavior, and in particular to consider the possibility of forming a coalition. The results signal a deep political crisis in France that is liable to affect the country and its neighbors. The...
Questions of the “what would have happened if” are irrelevant to historical research, unless they add a current perspective. Such a perspective exists insofar as Ukraine is not part of NATO or the European Union, unlike other European countries that were part of the Soviet bloc and were accepted into these organizations following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. And now, when parts of Ukraine have been captured by Russia, and two regions have even been recognized by Russia as independent, this question arises anew. The rigid...
There seems to be no country in Europe where the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a greater systemic upheaval than in Germany. The invasion roused Germany from the illusions that have guided its dealings with Russia since the 1970s – the “Ostpolitik” (eastern) policy. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the unification of Germany, and the (apparent) disappearance of the Soviet threat created a sense of the end of history and the victory of the liberal West. Enjoyment of the “fruits of peace” became the motto of German policy,...
War is raging on Ukrainian soil, but the Russian forces have thus far failed to surround and isolate Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. The United States, Great Britain, and the European Union are fully coordinating their response, with a focus on three areas: economic and political isolation of Russia; the supply of military aid to Ukraine; and stepped-up military preparations among NATO countries. It is already clear that Russia’s action upsets the world order that has existed since the end of World War II, and is likely to cause...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
After brief and discreet coalition talks, Olaf Scholz became Germany’s ninth Chancellor and the fourth from the Social Democratic party. Scholz will head a tripartite coalition, the first of its kind in the history of the Republic (at the federal level) – “the traffic light coalition,” referring to the colors of the constituent parties. The starting position of the Scholz government will not grant it one hundred days of grace: the fourth wave of COVID-19 has hit Germany, and in foreign affairs the Chancellor will have to deal with...
