The surprise attack on Israel and the ensuing Swords of Iron war have created a dangerous geopolitical security crisis, which inter alia challenges the processes of reconciliation and normalization between Israel and Arab countries. However, the crisis could also provide a historic window of opportunity for a joint agreement between Israel, the United States, and the pragmatic Sunni states who seek the best for the Middle East and prefer to cooperate for the sake of regional calm and stability. The climate crisis is among the...
The October 7 calamity – the worst Israel has experienced in the 75 years of its existence – brings with it a strategic opportunity of historic proportions: a willingness among regional and international actors to form a coalition against Hamas and Iran and its proxies, which operate across the Middle East and beyond. However, in order to take advantage of this golden opportunity, Israel must take meaningful political and public measures, particularly regarding a political process with the Palestinians. Yet the current Israeli...
In the framework of the regional initiative promoted by the US administration, Saudi Arabia hopes to sign a defense pact with the United States. A strengthened US commitment to an important ally such as Saudi Arabia and an increased US military presence in the Middle East are clearly in Israel’s interest. Therefore, Israel should not have a serious problem with a US security commitment to the Kingdom, including a defense pact between the two countries. However, Jerusalem should try to guarantee that a robust defense pact will obviate...
The policy of the Israeli government in the Palestinian arena and domestic pressure on the Royal House of Bahrain challenge realization of the potential of the bilateral relations. Bahrain’s benefit from the normalization does not live up to the expectations, at least in the economic aspect. Therefore, if this has not already occurred, contacts are likely to stagnate.
Israel and the Palestinian Authority are struggling for control of Area C, which makes up about 60 percent of the West Bank. The PA contends that Area C, with agricultural land, access to Jordan, natural resources, space for infrastructures, and residential construction, should be a central and essential part of the future Palestinian state. However, the aim of the current Israeli government is to establish Israeli control over all Area C, significantly expand Israeli settlement there, and prepare the conditions for Israeli...
The Palestinian issue is expected to command a more central role in the talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel on normalization, compared to earlier assessments or expectations by the Israeli government. Three main reasons account for this: the importance of the issue for Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Arab-Muslim world; the demands that the Biden administration is expected to present to Israel to preserve the two-state option; and the understanding by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas that he will gain more than he...
President Biden is examining options for promoting a groundbreaking regional move in the Middle East, which will focus primarily on normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel in exchange for an Israeli commitment to take certain steps on the Palestinian issue and United States approval of a series of significant Saudi demands, including a defense pact, a civilian nuclear program, and advanced weapon systems. New in this dynamic is the apparent greater willingness of the administration to accommodate Saudi demands. The actual...
Relations between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have deteriorated recently. Underlying the disputes between these two countries, which pursue a pragmatic approach toward Israel, whether publicly or behind the scenes, are considerations of prestige and status in the regional and international arenas. The “awakening” Saudi Arabia has an interest in reestablishing what it sees as its preferred status over the UAE, which in recent years has enjoyed improved regional and international standing. While disputes between Abu Dhabi...
On July 17, 2023, the Royal Palace in Rabat announced that Israel has officially recognized Moroccan sovereignty in Western Sahara. This significant step aligns Israel with the United States on a cornerstone of Moroccan foreign policy. The recognition is expected to substantially improve Israel-Morocco relations and overcome barriers that have hindered their progress, particularly in the diplomatic sphere, by upgrading their liaison offices to permanent embassies, and boost other facets of the relations as well. At the same time,...
The possible normalization of Israel-Saudi relations is once again making headlines, following emerging signs of readiness in the United States to promote this matter. Progress depends on several variables, led by, relations between the US and Saudi Arabia, and relations between the US and Israel. Partial normalization between Jerusalem and Riyadh is possible in certain circumstances, even without a full Israeli-Palestinian political settlement, provided the Saudis receive what they consider to be due compensation from the United...
The resilience of the Abraham Accords is challenged by policies of the Israeli government and the escalating violence in the Palestinian arena. The countries that signed agreements with Israel have an interest in upholding them, in parallel with developments in the Palestinian arena, in the expectation that the Israel will restore calm and stability. However, continued escalation has already drawn some of them, partly of necessity, to pay closer attention to Israeli policy toward the Palestinians, particularly in the Ramadan period....
Slowly but surely Saudi Arabia is proceeding with its nuclear program on various routes. The recent rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran has not significantly changed the basic facts in this context, including the Kingdom’s perception of the Iranian threat. In the not too distant future, tension could arise between Israel’s interest in oversight and restrictions on the program, because of the risks it entails, and the Israeli interest of promoting relations with the Kingdom. In spite of Israel’s ties with Saudi Arabia and their...
