Several developments might encourage an arrangement that could lead to a different dynamic in Yemen. Chief among them are the establishment of a presidential council, an overall ceasefire, and the partial lifting of the air and sea blockade imposed on Yemen by Saudi Arabia. The recent territorial losses recorded by the Houthis, which prompted heightened attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, helped push the parties to a ceasefire. However, experience teaches us that the chances of reaching a long-term political settlement are not...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
On March 7, 2021, Houthi rebels – also known as Ansar Allah – fired a salvo of missiles at Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Ras Tanura and Dhahran. Despite uncertainty regarding the motives behind the attack or its success, the very next day Iran’s IRGC sought to threaten Israel by forging an implicit link between the Houthi strike and the possibility of an attack on Eilat. This incident is only the latest evidence of Iran’s perception of the Houthis as a bargaining chip in its struggle against Israel, relating to the rebel group...
At the outset of 2021, the situation in Yemen is stalemated and potentially unstable. This article outlines existing trends in the Yemeni theater that may continue for the foreseeable future, as well as potential game changers, which include low-probability high-impact events that could disrupt the ongoing conflict for better or worse. As far as Israel is concerned, a recent Newsweek article reported that Iran provided the Houthis with delta-winged explosive drones, which have a range of 2,000-2,200 kilometers; the publication...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
The coronavirus is making its way across the Middle East, forcing states to prepare for the possible collapse of governing systems. The virus struck a region already buckling under the weight of armed conflicts, social upheaval, severe economic distress, and identity-related clashes. The data on corona’s spread is far from precise or reliable, given the lack of testing, lagging policies, and likely efforts at concealment on the part of certain regimes. But it is safe to assume that the number of infections is far greater than what is...
A phenomenon that has intensified over the past decade in the Middle East is the use of mercenaries to project power and to realize interests. It seems that the Gulf states, Turkey, and Russia are leaders in this trend, using numerous mercenaries for combat missions beyond their borders. Mercenaries give those who deploy them a tool for managing warfare beyond their own borders, and another means of power projection while reducing their official losses. Israel, which is currently engaged in the struggle against Iranian entrenchment...
Nine years after the dramatic events of late 2010 and early 2011 (the so-called Arab Spring), the regional upheaval persists and the Middle East continues to be characterized by instability, uncertainty, and volatility. There is broad consensus among researchers and observers that the region is mired in a deep crisis, while undergoing processes with crucial long term implications and engaged in a turbulent contest over its character.
This struggle is unfolding in two realms: first, between four main camps competing over ideas, power,...
The September 14 attack on the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia – including Abqaiq, which is considered the largest of its kind in the world – is the most serious kinetic attack on oil facilities in the Gulf since the 1991 Gulf War, in terms of damage and economic significance. This incident goes far beyond the bounds of the war in Yemen, particularly if it is proven beyond any doubt that the attack was launched from Iranian territory. Under these circumstances, it is evident that even if Iran is not interested in a broad...
Southern separatist forces, which claim independence for South Yemen and enjoy the support of the UAE, have consolidated their hold on Aden, the alternative capital of the Yemeni central government since it lost Sanaa. This development, which follows the UAE’s announcement that it intends to reduce its forces in Yemen, is yet another sign that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are divided over the nature and possible reformation of the Yemeni state. While Saudi Arabia is determined to return Yemen to its pre-war unified governmental...
