The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
If 2020 is remembered for the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 stands to be the year of the vaccine. Nonetheless, the coronavirus will continue to shape the world, and the likely scenario is a gradual decline of the pandemic, marked by sporadic outbreaks. In the second half of the year, the effects of the vaccine will be felt, the Biden administration will settle in, and there may be a new government in Israel. The international system remains polarized, even as each country focuses on its individual problems. The Biden...
In recent weeks, the UN has marked the 75th anniversary of its founding. In addition to the 75th annual General Assembly in late September, many discussions and conferences have been devoted to the organization’s purpose, future activity, and legitimacy in the current world order, which differs substantially from the order that prevailed after the Second World War when the UN Charter was drafted. The discussions and presentations at the various events provide food for thought about the UN and the international system, including...
The year 2020 marks seventy years since UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East), which serves Palestinian refugees in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, began operation. Since its establishment by virtue of the mandate given to it by the UN General Assembly, UNRWA has not succeeded in bringing about the true rehabilitation of the Palestinian refugees and in reducing their number, which has risen from approximately 700,000 on the eve of the State of Israel’s...
On August 28, 2020 the Security Council adopted Resolution 2539 (2020), thereby renewing the mandate of UNIFIL, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, for another year. The resolution calls on the Lebanese government to facilitate UNIFIL freedom of access to the tunnel sites and all along the Blue Line; requires UNIFIL to report incidents promptly; and requires the UN Secretary General to present a plan for improvements to the force. The Israeli Foreign Ministry announcement implies the limitations of the achievement: “Now the...
The rejection by the Security Council of a US draft resolution to extend the embargo on arms sales to Iran, scheduled to expire on October 18, 2020, is evidence of the administration’s isolation, which is largely a result of the displeasure with its unilateral steps and the deep rift with its traditional allies in Europe. The administration now intends to demand that the Council invoke a clause for a snapback of all sanctions and curbs that were previously imposed on Iran and lifted after the nuclear agreement was reached....
Every August, UN Security Council discussions on extending the mandate of the UNIFIL force in Lebanon enter their final stretch. This year’s talks are overshadowed by the heightened security tensions on Israel’s northern borders, including the foiled Hezbollah attack at Mt. Dov, and in particular, the Beirut port blast, which inflicted thousands of casualties, laid waste to much of the city, and brought down the Lebanese government. The security tension has provided ample proof of the holes in the security regime in...
In January 2020, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) hosted its 13th Annual International Conference. Entitled “Strategic Assessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade,” the conference included discussions, simulations, and lectures on strategic issues important to Israel’s national security. The conference was attended by decision makers, opinion leaders, and leading researchers from Israel and abroad. We invite you to read the digital version of the booklet that summarizes the conference...
Israel’s process of annexing West Bank territory has restored the Palestinian issue to center stage, after Jerusalem succeeded over the past decade in pushing the issue to the margins of the regional and international agendas. The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a war game to examine the ramifications of Israel’s application of sovereignty over territories in the West Bank. In the scenario, following the Israeli government’s decision to apply sovereignty in limited scope to settlement blocs in the Jerusalem...
Israel’s new government will have to review the validity of many ideas within the Israeli consensus that have guided foreign policy over the past two decades. Key questions concern the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; relations between Israel and its neighbors in the Middle East, particularly in the area of energy and in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; relations with the United States, including the implications of the competition between China and the US; relations with the European Union; and relations with...
The global, regional, and internal implications of the coronavirus are still not fully clear, but Israel’s 35th government will have no 100-day grace period. It must quickly restore the economy to full activity, despite the presence of the virus and the possibility of a renewed outbreak. On the security level, all the regimes in the Middle East are busy with the pandemic and internal affairs, and will most likely seek to avoid escalation in conflicts with Israel. At the same time, the risk of unplanned escalation (in Syria,...
What will the world look like one year from now, and how will the corona pandemic affect the Middle East? This article presents four possible scenarios: “continuation,” in which following a temporary interruption of a few months, there is a resumption of familiar global and regional trends from the pre-corona era; “revolution,” in which there is a fundamental change in the patterns that characterized life before the crisis and the world prepares for a new illiberal world order led by China; “breakdown,” in which all global actors...
