The Islamic State, now marking its first anniversary, is an autonomous entity controlling a considerable geographical area within the territory of Iraq and Syria. Assessing the first year of his tenure as caliph of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi can crown his gamble a success, at least in the meantime. • The terrorist attacks that were carried out last week in Tunisia, Kuwait, and France are sharp new indicators that the campaign to defeat the Islamic State can be expected to exact a heavy price in human casualties in...
The unification of the rebel Sunni forces, along with the understandings reached between the supporting Sunni countries that hope to see the Assad regime overthrown, has effected a change in the balance of power in the Syrian civil war and has broken the deadlock that characterized the fighting over the past year. At the same time, it is still premature to conclude that the Assad regime is on the verge of collapse. Bitter and all-out fighting between the rebel Sunni forces and the Shiite axis forces can be expected. At the regional...
The battles underway since February 2015 in the Daraa district in southern Syria between the Syrian army, the Iranian Quds forces, and Hizbollah on the one hand, and various rebel groups and organizations on the other, are important for the actors involved, as well as for those not involved. These battles are part of a struggle for control of the Damascus-Quneitra-Daraa triangle, a crucial area for both the consolidation of the Bashar al-Assad regime and its overthrow. The opposing sides attribute great importance to the results of...
On January 9, 2015, the German weekly Der Spiegel published an article alleging that Syria did not give up its nuclear weapons development ambitions following the destruction in 2007 of its almost completed, North Korean-constructed nuclear reactor near the town of Deir-al-Zor. Instead, according to Der Spiegel, it is in the process of erecting a new nuclear facility near the town of Qusayr, very close to Syria’s border with Lebanon. Syria has a long history of deception and lying to the international community on matters concerning...
The attack in the Golan Heights near Quneitra on January 18, 2015, which killed Hizbollah operatives and Iranian Revolutionary Guards al-Quds Force commanders, was attributed to Israel. Iran and Hizbollah appear to be seeking an appropriate violent response to restore deterrence and signal to Israel that they will not accept a change in the rules of the game, but without this leading to war. A January 19 headline in the Lebanese daily as-Safir read: “More than a Response, Less than a War.” The axis has a number of possible responses...
Since the start of the millennium, suicide attacks have become a common mode of operation for many terrorist groups around the world, particularly Sunni Salafist jihadi organizations affiliated with global jihad. For them, suicide attacks are not only an effective tactic for causing death and destruction and sowing terror; they are also a trademark and proof of the willingness of their operatives to sacrifice themselves for the sake of God (fi sabil Allah). In 2014 there were 592 suicide attacks, a 94 percent increase over the...
Trends that marked the Middle East in preceding years that were joined in 2014 by new developments are analyzed in this volume, as well as the response of regional and international actors to these processes of change. To date, no political or military response has been found to contain the threat inherent in the crises occupying the regional and international communities in recent years, let alone resolve them. It is therefore likely that these crises will maintain their central position on the international agenda both during 2015...
Since the start of the previous decade, and especially in the past four years, the Middle East has experienced upheavals that will change the face of the region for many years to come. This turmoil has several sources: the United States occupation of Iraq in 2003, which altered the country’s political structure and military capabilities for the foreseeable future; the sociopolitical turbulence, originally called the “Arab Spring,” experienced by many regimes in the Arab world; the growing strength of radical Islamic groups in the...
As presented in the Syrian social media, public opinion holds that damage to the US interest in Syria will lead to a conflict of interests between the US and Israel, and an American red light regarding Israeli action against targets belonging to the Assad regime within Syria – as long as the war against the Islamic State continues. It is believed that this strategy, which urges a strong response against the rebel organizations in Syria in response to Israeli attacks in Syria, will restore deterrence against Israel, because even if...
In recent months there have been clear signs of Hizbollah’s legitimacy rebounding in Lebanon’s political and civilian spheres. The current governmental vacuum suits Hizbollah well, and while Lebanon’s army has never been capable of standing up to the challenging array of threats facing the country, Hizbollah is standing steadfast against the current external threat. Ironically, Hizbollah played a role in creating this threat, yet has since become the most effective means of dealing with it. In their despair, more than a few Lebanese...
The consensus in Israel is that Hizbollah was deterred as a result of the Second Lebanon War, that because of the damage sustained by the group and its supporters, it refrained from fighting against Israel, and that quiet that has reigned on the northern border was a result of the war. In fact, most of the arguments supposedly proving that Hizbollah was deterred are less clear-cut than they appear. The majority of Hizbollah’s actions, both before and after the war, can be explained by other factors—domestic Lebanese and...
This article examines the contribution made by peacekeeping operations on Israel’s borders to regional stability since Israel’s establishment, especially in the face of the challenge posed by armed non-state actors in the second decade of the twenty-first century. The article is divided into three parts. The first part presents the main changes in the operating principles of peacekeeping missions from the Cold War to the present. The second provides a concise overview of the rationale for peacekeeping operations on Israel’s borders....
