The recent escalation in the confrontation between the United States and Iran demonstrates the determination of both sides not to concede any ground, on the understanding that doing so would undercut their ability to bargain in any future negotiations. In parallel to the mutual muscle-flexing there are mediation efforts underway, currently led by French President Macron, in an effort to formulate the conditions and nature of a dialogue. Looking ahead, the two likeliest scenarios remain as they were: protracted confrontation between...
The race for dominance in the data highways of the future is at the forefront of the strategic competition between the United States and China. The two powers compete for other countries’ support and infrastructure, seeking to obtain technological, economic, and security advantages. Banning Chinese companies from fifth generation infrastructure (5G) projects is the most explicit demand the United States administration has made of Israel, including clear linkage to American security assistance and intelligence cooperation. Thus, it is...
A series of “volcanic” eruptions are reported around the world: “trade war,” mutual imposition of tariffs, sanctions on companies, military signaling in the South China Sea, summits between leaders, and temporary “ceasefires.” All are manifestations of the historic clash between the “tectonic plates” of the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China. Like the processes that shaped the earth, the collision will shape the landscape for future generations:...
The international media reported that the United States conducted a cyberattack on command and control computers belonging to Iran’s air defense and surface-to-surface missile apparatuses. The working premise of this essay is that these reports are factually correct. The United States decision not to retaliate against Iran for the downing of the UAV with a kinetic attack, and its choice instead of a standalone cyberattack, i.e., absent synergy with complementary kinetic steps, further entrenches the US posturing as an actor deterred...
One facet of the recent American-Iranian escalation is the cyber realm. Moving the conflict into cyberspace enables one side to commit retaliatory acts while reducing the impact that requires the other side to respond and escalate: this is how the cyberattack by the United States in response to Iran’s downing of the American drone should be understood. Yet considering the rapid development of knowledge and technology in all that is related to cyberspace, integration of the cyber dimension into the sphere of international conflicts...
The meeting in Jerusalem in late June between the national security advisers of the United States, Washington, and Israel was a preliminary stage in renewing cooperation between Washington and Moscow on a range of issues. In the Syrian context, it was a bid to pressure Moscow to reduce aid and support for Iran in exchange for an easing of the Western sanctions imposed on Russia. For its part, Russia is working to brand itself as a mediator between the United States and Iran on issues ranging from the nuclear file to regional...
The economic workshop in Bahrain is the first part of the “deal of the century”; the political portion will apparently be presented only after the Israeli elections in September. The workshop in Bahrain leans heavily on Donald Trump’s political doctrine, whereby the economic power of the United States is the key to resolve economic, political, and social issues. However, a review of peace treaties that Israel has signed shows that the economy has consistently played only a secondary role, behind significant...
The meeting of the national security advisers of the United States, Russia, and Israel in late June is an achievement for Israel’s policy, which navigates between the interests of Moscow and Washington and is a party to the superpowers’ dialogue on the future of Syria and the Iranian intervention in that country. For the United States and Russia, this is another step in the their efforts to create closer ties and to focus the dialogue between them on matters of dispute. The choice of Israel as the venue for the meeting was meant to...
The plan of the US president Donald Trump for a political deal between Israel and the Palestinians, dubbed the “Deal of the Century,” includes two chapters: the first— economic—will be revealed in Bahrain in a workshop to be held at the end of June; the second—political—includes reference to the sensitive issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and its launch has been postponed apparently until after the elections and the establishment of a government in Israel in late 2019. The details leaked about the plan indicate that it...
The dispute between the United States and Iran is taking place on two levels: The American administration is adhering to its policy of placing “maximum pressure” on the Iranian regime, while Iran is adopting a new policy in place of the “tolerance” that it had demonstrated thus far, in order to show the United States, and especially the other countries that signed the Nuclear Agreement—particularly the European partners—the costs they are liable to pay for continuing the sanctions. At the same time, in an attempt to prevent a...
After a year in which Iran opted for “strategic patience,” in the hope that European nations would compensate for the United States sanctions, it now seeks to present a price tag for the US measures against it, and has thus embarked on a response comprising action in three realms: nuclear, military, and oil exports from the Gulf. In the current circumstances, Iran and the United States are demanding conditions that would make a resumption of negotiations difficult, although both sides apparently understand that dialogue...
The growing process of public and political polarization in the United States impacts on support for Israel, which for many years was in the bipartisan political consensus. Joined by awakening waves of anti-Semitism, support for Israel, now identified most strongly with the Republican party, is becoming a controversial issue. These developments have weighty implications for Israel. First, the Israeli government is fully identified with the policies of President Trump, and this stands to challenge relations with the Democratic party...
