Publications on Lebanon and Hezbollah

In the recent incident in which an IDF patrol on the Golan Heights was struck by a roadside bomb, all signs point to the bomb’s having been placed by Hizbollah-backed forces, apparently with the knowledge and aid of Assad’s forces. Indeed, it is likely that all three incidents in March – two on the Syrian border, in territories controlled by the Assad regime and Assad loyalists, and the third in the area of Mount Dov, a Hizbollah stronghold – were Hizbollah attacks against Israel.

Since the beginning of the bloody civil war in Syria three years ago, Hizbollah’s political and security environment has grown far more complex, with the Lebanese Shiite organization involved in a prolonged civil war that has strong regional implications, and with its status within Lebanon increasingly contested. Thus while Hizbollah remains the single most powerful military organization in Lebanon, both its freedom of action and its capacity to project power have been constrained. Currently, Hizbollah must deal with challenges at...

The processes that led to the Second Lebanon War and the events that took place during the war are analyzed six years after the war. The starting point for the analysis is the withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, which, according to the analysis, was justified. However, from a broad perspective, it is evident that the overall processes since the withdrawal led to strategic choices that resulted in the IDF’s reduced operational preparedness. The article examines the decision making processes near the start of and during the course of the...

Focus in the analytical essays compiled here is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and opportunities that await Israel in 2014. In 2013 the Middle East continued to grapplewith several risk-laden issues and processes that began in previous years, includingthe socio-political unrest in many Arab states and the increased power ofradical Islamic elements in lawless areas near Israel’s borders; the ongoingcivil war in Syria; the unresolved Iranian nuclear issue; and the wide gaps betweenIsrael and the...

The potential impact of refugees on economic,security, and political stability is a familiar challenge in the Middle East.Past wars in the region have led hundreds of thousands of people to migrate and in many cases to remain as permanent residents in their new locations,which in turn affects the political and demographic balance of the hostcountries. So too, the events of recent years in Syria, Libya, and Yemen have promptedwaves of refugees that are likely to threaten the internal stability ofcountries that have thus far managed to...

  Over the past two years the Syrian conflict hasevolved from non-violent political demonstrations into a militarized,sectarian, and prolonged civil war. Furthermore, massive external involvementin the internal war has turned Syria into a proxy regional war. This is notonly because of the major humanitarian crisis triggered by the conflict and theeconomic and political pressure Syria’s neighbors face in seeking toaccommodate the growing influx of refugees, but also because the war in Syriarisks destabilizing the entire Middle...

  Current discourse on Palestinian and Lebanesesocial networks indicates that a surprising trend has emerged over the past sixmonths with potential momentous consequences for Israel’s security concept and thestrategic challenges before it. The violent resistance (muqawama)against Israel by Hizbollah and Hamas has lost much of its legitimacy in Lebanese civilsociety and Palestinian society, respectively. Hizbollah and Hamas were foundedas Islamic resistance movements based on the principle of violent struggle asboth a vision and...

On July 22, 2013, the Council of the European Union decided to designate Hizbollah’s “military wing” as a terrorist organization. The EU decided to adopt the United Kingdom’s approach (shared by Australia and New Zealand), distinguishing between Hizbollah’s military and political wings, blacklisting the former while recognizing the latter. And while the EU’s labeling of Hizbollah’s military wing does not constitute a watershed event for either the EU or Hizbollah, for Nasrallah’s organization and for its Iranian partners,...

Hizbollah’s increasingly apparent involvement in the bloodshed in Syria has hurt the organization’s legitimacy and popularity within Lebanon. The discourse in the Lebanese social media in recent months indicates the depth of the crises that Hizbollah now faces. The terms “civil war,” “confrontation,” “political vacuum” and “sectarian struggle” pepper the online discourse frequently, implying that Lebanon is on a trajectory towards internal strife. The discussions on Lebanese...

According to foreign sources, about two weeks ago, Israel attacked targets in Syrian territory. Assuming that a convoy of SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles en route from Syria to Lebanon was in fact attacked by Israel, as was reported by foreign sources, several questions arise. What other types of weapons could Syria move to Lebanon? What are the possible reasons for Syria choosing to move these weapons to Lebanon at this time? The article addresses these questions, discussing the motives behind the possible transfer of weapons and the...