This article examines the threat posed by Iran and North Korea, the two most serious nuclear proliferators challenging their respective regional orders, and the global nonproliferation regime. It examines two questions that have implications for assessing the ability of key international actors to confront not only Iran’s ongoing nuclear ambitions, but any future proliferator that embarks on a nuclear path in violation of its NPT commitments: how international actors choose to confront the proliferator, and their ability to cooperate...
Seven years after the onset of the upheaval in the Middle East and two years since the implementation of the nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran, the main contours of the region’s emerging reality – including the actors, rivalries, partnerships, front lines, power relations, and behavior of the major powers – are becoming clear. Now, after nearly one full year at the Washington helm, the nature of the Trump administration and its influence on the domestic arena, the Middle East, and the global stage are also coming into...
As 2017 draws to a close, the Middle East is witnessing the convergence of several important developments that will potentially have a broad impact on Israeli national security. The civil war in Syria is subsiding through a process dominated by Russia, Iran, and Turkey – which poses the danger that Israel’s interests will not be taken into account in the deliberations and steps toward an agreement to stabilize the arena. The jihadist territorial Islamic State established in Iraq and Syria has been obliterated, although the underlying...
2017 was marked by increased Saudi-Iranian hostility, on both the bilateral level and the regional level, and by the strategic balance tilting further in Iran’s favor, intensifying the trend that emerged in the previous year. The new variable of 2017 – the entry of President Donald Trump into the White House – heightened the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and cast a potential shadow over Iran’s room to maneuver. On the one hand, the Trump administration poses a threat to Iran, by casting it as the main cause of regional...
The instability that has defined the Arab world in recent years continues. Arab regimes lack the motivation and/or the ability to deal with the fundamental problems that feed the actual or potential unrest, and above all the socioeconomic situation. Joining the internal shocks are rifts and tensions between regional players, particularly between the Shiite camp led by Iran, and the Sunni camp led by Saudi Arabia, which is also at war with itself. However, state frameworks have survived and previous assessments regarding the...
The understandings reached recently between the United States and Russia regarding Syria accept the deployment of Iranian forces and Iranian-controlled militias (proxies) on the range from the Golan Heights border – a situation that is entirely unacceptable to Israel. It seems that the time is coming when Israel, if it wants to stop Iran’s influence and consolidation in Syria, will have to become actively engaged in the Syrian quagmire. Israel must demonstrate determination in its demand to remove Iranian forces and...
After years of disagreement between Iran and Turkey, particularly regarding the war in Syria, there are many recent signs of an increase in cooperation between Tehran and Ankara. A range of developments on the ground, including the success of Iran and Russia in ensuring the continuation of the Assad regime; cooperation between the United States and the Kurds in the fight against the Islamic State; and concern about the consequences of Kurdish ambitions for independence, as well as Turkey’s decision to send armed forces to Syria...
The central issue discussed in the August 23, 2017 meeting between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Putin was the growing Iranian involvement in Syria and the role that Russia is assigning to Iran in shaping the future political arrangement in the war-torn state. Israel’s struggle against Iran’s growing influence in Syria will be determined by the ability of both Iran and Israel to exercise effective levers of influence on Russia. Russia for its part will try to maneuver between Israeli demands and the need for...
The question of Syria’s future, especially the issue of Iran’s influence and presence in the country, was at the center of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s meeting with President Putin. On the table are a range of possible scenarios of Iranian levels of intervention for which Israel is preparing, against an array of strategic considerations that will influence Iran’s policy. The Iranian threat from Syria does not pose an intolerable security challenge for Israel right now and probably will not in the future, especially if...
The arrangement between the United States and Russia over southern Syria represents a test, both for the chances of jumpstarting a coordinated process between the world powers over a future settlement in Syria and for the relations between them on other contested issues. Israel was not mentioned in the context of the ceasefire arrangement, but it has scored several achievements. Nonetheless, Israel is likely to confront an attempt by President Assad to advance forces to southwest Syria and the Golan Heights. Because Assad’s forces...
In the summer of 2006, Hassan Nasrallah predicted that the Second Lebanon War would become a historic landmark and the countdown to the end of the State of Israel. With the same breath, Nasrallah sought to make the war into a milestone on Hezbollah’s road to hegemony in Lebanon. In practice, he failed. The Second Lebanon War did not break apart the camp of Hezbollah opponents in Lebanon, and it also turned the spotlight on the organization’s Shiite identity, its connections to Iran, its dependence on Tehran, and its obeisance to...
The current race for control of territory in Syria now appears to be a competition between Iran and the United States, which have established two respective axes – with a vertical American (north-south) effort on the one hand, and a horizontal Iranian (east-west) effort on the other hand. In practice, this is another stage in the shaping of Syria in preparation for the day after the Islamic State. In the meantime, the country’s southwestern region, from Daraa to the Golan Heights, remains open for activity and influence by Israel and...
