Russia is taking action to promote a political initiative regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, focusing on an attempt to convene a summit in Moscow between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas. From the outset Israel was not enthusiastic about the Russian initiative, but was compelled to respond favorably to the proposal, in order not to be perceived as being anti-peace and due to its concern about disturbing its fragile relationship with Russia. Yet in any event, there is skepticism whether both the Palestinians and...
On August 16, 2016, the governments of Russia and Iran announced that Russia deployed fighter jets in western Iran, southwest of Tehran, and that the planes have already executed sorties against military targets in Syria. Operationally, flying the Russian planes out of Iran does not in and of itself have much effect on Israel. Either way, Russia is attacking jihadist organizations in Syria – a shared Israeli interest – and it does not much matter to Israel if the planes take off from Russia, Syria, or Iran. Planes leaving Iran to...
The current reality in Syria is gradually prompting a change in US policy, out of an understanding that the lines between the many Sunni actors operating in the war-torn state are vague and elusive. There may now be a turning point in the Obama administration’s assessment of the situation, as it realizes that there are no truly moderate forces in Syria that can serve as an alternative to the Assad regime, and that at the end of the day, all of the Sunni groups, whether Salafist groups or others, will cooperate with al-Qaeda or...
During Saudi King Salman’s 5-day visit to Cairo, which began on April 7, 2016, Egypt and Saudi Arabia signed a series of agreements on a range of topics, reflecting stronger bilateral coordination and involving a total sum of some $25 billion. For Israel, the most significant agreement authorized the transfer of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir in the Straits of Tiran from Egypt to Saudi Arabia. This was perceived in Egypt and throughout the Arab world as payment for the massive aid Egypt has already received and expects to...
While violations of the ceasefire by Assad’s forces, the Syrian army’s reconquest of Palmyra, and the possible plans to retake a-Raqqa, the Syrian capital of the Islamic State, place the rebels in an inferior position, the rebels, with Western support, can try to turn the situation around. The United States now has the opportunity to form an opposition force, prepare it, and help it seize a-Raqqa before it is attacked by the pro-Assad coalition (the Syrian army, Russian air support, and Hezbollah and Iranian troops). Instead of...
On March 14, 2016, Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of the majority of Russian military units from Syria, after, he claimed, the Russian force had achieved the goals set for it when it entered Syria five and a half months earlier. Yet whatever the reasons for Russia’s surprising move, it is apparent that Russia has announced a limitation on its participation in the fighting in Syria, not the conclusion of its military involvement. For its part, Israel has thus far refrained from choosing a side and intervening directly in the...
On February 27, 2016, a ceasefire went into effect in Syria between the forces of the Assad regime and the opposition. The understandings underpinning the ceasefire rely on the agreement between Russia and the United States, which are determined to promote a broader settlement in Syria. To maintain the ceasefire, they will need to restrain the other actors involved in the crisis. It is important for the United States to focus on fighting the Islamic State, and the key question is whether or not it will be able to join forces with...
On December 23, 2015, malfunctions were reported in portions of the electrical network in western Ukraine, after the operations of 27 distribution stations and three power plants were disrupted, causing the electricity supply system to crash. This was not a routine power outage: the Ukrainian authorities believe that a cyber attack originating in Russia caused the malfunction, and the Security Service of Ukraine has blamed Russia for the power outages. The conclusions of several security companies confirm the suspicion linking the...
The instability racking the Middle East of the past five years shows little sign of abatement, and every new conflict or war – between states and within states – constitutes another link in the chain of social, ideological, political, and territorial upheavals sweeping the region. With the Middle East thus having become a region marked primarily by violence, regional and international leaders must focus their attention on both defensive and offensive measures designed to reduce the potential for damage and destruction inherent in...
After months of an air-land military effort by the Russian-Iranian coalition in Syria, the integrated attack has been halted. The main goal of Iran’s intervention in the fighting in Syria is a strengthened Shiite Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah axis, built on the Alawite regime with its pro-Iranian orientation. For its part, Russia has other interests, and its preferred goal is a settlement that will give it a foothold and facilitate its influence in the Middle East, while putting an end to Western dominance in the region. Yet regardless...
Since late September 2015, Russia has launched airstrikes in Syria in order to assist the forces defending the Assad regime against the rebels and the Islamic State. Russia’s intervention includes the deployment of aerial forces (close to 40 fighter jets and helicopters), aerial defense systems, and aerial command and control systems. President Vladimir Putin described the purpose of Russia’s intervention as a battle against the Islamic State, although as of November 2015 most of the targets attacked were those belonging to the...
