Following the recent elections in the United States, President-elect Joe Biden declared the incoming administration’s intention to return to the nuclear deal and lift the sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration if Tehran returns to full compliance with its commitments as part of the agreement. However, senior administration officials appear willing to discuss the matter in consultation with US allies in the Middle East, and in particular with Israel. In the dialogue that is expected to take place with the...
The prevailing assumption in the Israeli and international media, and among governments around the world, is that the assassination of the head of Iran’s military nuclear project, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was carried out by Israel. If so, the costs and benefits of the assassination from Israel’s vantage point should be examined and weighed. To this end, certain questions must be answered: What was the strategic purpose of this action, and what is the likelihood of its ultimate success? In light of this goal, was the timing of the action...
The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizada invites six questions: Who is responsible for the act? What was the objective? Why now? What are the consequences of the assassination? How will Iran respond? What is the recommended policy for Israel in light of this development? This article contends that barring narrow political considerations, whoever ordered Fakhrizadeh’s assassination apparently tried to achieve three strategic objectives: damage Iran’s nuclear program; obstruct the Biden administration’s return to the...
A panel discussion was held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) to assess the main implications of Joe Biden’s victory for United States policy, with an emphasis on the Middle East, and to formulate insights on the steps Israel should take. Particular emphasis was placed on the need to internalize quickly that the reality has changed, and Israel must therefore adapt its policy to the evolving American policy, as well as to the style of the new President and administration. Much importance was attached by the...
In the first half of his forthcoming term, President-elect Joe Biden will almost certainly concentrate on domestic affairs. Of primary urgency are the damages and economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the ideological divisions in US society, which were exacerbated during the Trump presidency. However, Biden will not be able to ignore foreign affairs, and uppermost in his priorities will be the competition with China for strategic, military, technological, and economic supremacy. Chinese President Xi Jinping has...
China has come to realize that its strategic competition with the United States will not disappear; it will merely assume a change in form in response to the style and policy of the new American president. Therefore, Beijing believes it must shape its relations with the US so as contain the damage. China is emerging from the Donald Trump era with a decision to develop advanced technologies independently, above all, semiconductor industry, in order to avoid dependence on the United States. Along with the major disputes between the...
With Joe Biden’s entry into the White House, Saudi Arabia’s acting ruler Mohammed bin Salman will be required to adjust Saudi policy in order to maintain positive relations with the new administration. Against the backdrop of criticism in the United States of certain steps Saudi Arabia has taken – most notably the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and Saudi Arabia’s military operations in Yemen – the future relations between the two countries is a matter of concern, including for Israel. Saudi Arabia will have to...
Iran appears satisfied with the results of the United States presidential elections, although more so by the defeat of Donald Trump than by the victory of Joe Biden. However, Tehran is aware that the tensions between the United States and its European partners, inter alia over the issue of the nuclear agreement – tensions that played in Iran’s favor – may dissipate. Against this background, with the heated debate within the Iranian political system regarding a return to negotiations with the US on the JCPOA, a number of key messages...
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been elected President of the United States. While millions of votes were still being counted, President Trump declared victory and stated that he would appeal to the Supreme Court to stop the counting process. From the outset, Biden will have to immediately devote himself to domestic issues, after four years in which racial tensions reached their worst point in decades and the spread of the coronavirus wreaked enormous damage on public health and the economy. Israel’s analysis of the incoming...
The upcoming United States presidential elections have aroused anxiety in Egypt. The main concern, as shown by statements in the establishment media, is the policy that former Vice President Joe Biden will pursue if he is elected. Biden has already hinted that he intends to put greater emphasis on democracy and human rights in Egypt. He is described in Cairo as someone who may well appoint people sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood to key positions in his administration, and as likely to return to the nuclear agreement with Iran....
China responded coolly to the normalization agreements between Israel and the Gulf states, due to its concerns that these accords, sponsored by the United States, derived inter alia from the United States’ intention to damage China’s relations with friendly countries in the Middle East and create alliances against China. Against a background of Chinese-American tensions, there are a number of signs of cool winds blowing from China toward Israel, such as the delay in appointing a new ambassador to Israel, and the lack of contact...
The embargo imposed by the UN Security Council on the sale of weapons to Iran will expire on October 18, 2020. At that time, Iran will be permitted to purchase the weapon systems that it sought unsuccessfully to obtain in the past. Iran will likely prefer to buy weapons mainly from Russia, which since the 1990s has been its principal arms supplier, and its shopping list will probably include the Sukhoi S-30 aircraft and the S-400 advanced air defense systems. However, over the last two decades, even before the embargo was imposed,...
