Predictions of the end of monarchic regimes can be traced back more than half a century, when studies first claimed that due to their “anachronistic nature” monarchies would not withstand the tide of modernization. On balance, the Gulf States, with the exception of Bahrain, have managed to avoid the scale of unrest that reached most of the region’s republics in the last decade. In fact, several Gulf monarchs consolidated their domestic, regional and international power even amid the upheaval. But the monarchies are confronting...
One facet of the recent American-Iranian escalation is the cyber realm. Moving the conflict into cyberspace enables one side to commit retaliatory acts while reducing the impact that requires the other side to respond and escalate: this is how the cyberattack by the United States in response to Iran’s downing of the American drone should be understood. Yet considering the rapid development of knowledge and technology in all that is related to cyberspace, integration of the cyber dimension into the sphere of international conflicts...
In recent years, several Arab countries have sped up research, development, and collaborations in the field of space in order to establish an independent technological-scientific infrastructure. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are taking the lead, using their vast economic resources for research, commercial, and even military purposes. The Arab countries still have a shortage of scientific-human infrastructure for research and development in the space field, although it is being built. They also lack the ability to launch...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
Eight years after a series of uprisings erupted across the Middle East, there is a debate whether a relatively stable order (old or new) has taken hold in the Middle East, or whether the region remains unstable and, therefore, will continue to produce waves of unrest. At its heart, this debate reflects conflicting assessments of the regimes’ abilities to manage what few would argue are fundamental economic problems and identity-related crises that have gone largely unresolved and, in some cases, worsened. For decision makers in...
An assessment of Israel’s national security situation in early 2019 indicates impressive military, political, technological, and economic strength. At the same time, however, there is the risk of a military conflagration on multiple fronts, and there are limits to Israel’s current policy, which focuses on military actions but lacks determination to exploit political opportunities. In most aspects of national security, with the exception of preventing Iran from consolidating its power and influence in Syria and transferring...
The combination of structural vagueness embodied in large cyber operations and their potential to cause real damage makes cyberspace the ideal field of action for Saudi Arabia and Iran and matches their strategic outlook and their concept of the use of force. The risk and the opportunity that cyberspace offers to each of these countries make it tempting, particularly when it concerns the long-term investment of resources. Cyberspace can therefore be expected to become another central arena of conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran,...
Over the past year the global oil market has experienced significant activity, particularly in the wake of sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran and developments in the global economy. For the US administration, Saudi Arabia plays an important role in countering the expected shortage of Iranian oil in the market and in moderating global oil prices. However, the Kingdom requires higher prices to meet its needs, and is the de facto leader of OPEC, which strives to raise oil prices. The price of oil (WTI) in the beginning of...
Recent decisions by the United States Senate concerning the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the future of American involvement in the war in Yemen reflect the large gap between the Trump administration and many lawmakers regarding relations with Saudi Arabia. It appears that despite President Trump’s desire to put the Khashoggi affair behind him, the last word has not yet been said. The pressures on the administration are not intended to bring the historical relations with Saudi Arabia to an end, but rather to...
The eighth issue of Over the Net deals at length with the affair that has taken the Arab world and the international arena by storm since October 2018, the murder and disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The man himself, the reasons behind his murder, and the details of the murder have combined to create a fascinating story that caused passionate discussions, first and foremost about Saudi Arabia and its (acting) leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and also about Turkey, the United States, and freedom of the press...
In November 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman laid the foundation stone for seven scientific/technological projects in the kingdom, including a nuclear research reactor. Saudi Arabia’s interest in nuclear matters is nothing new, nor is the concern that in certain conditions, the kingdom is liable to move toward nuclear weapons. To be sure, Saudi Arabia has serious reasons to seek civilian nuclear energy in order to meet its growing energy requirements, reduce its dependence on oil, and release more oil for export, but it...
The Trump administration is reportedly working to create a joint Arab military force. This force, which the administration refers to as the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA), has already been dubbed an Arab NATO. From the perspective of the United States, a regional Arab coalition could reduce or prevent the need for the deployment of American troops in the Middle East, as such an alliance could, in principle, fight Iranian subversion and support for terrorism, as well as take action to curb Iranian weapons smuggling to Iranian...
