The results of the September 24, 2017 parliamentary elections in Germany reflect victory mixed with disappointment for the incumbent, Chancellor Angela Merkel. Although Merkel will serve as chancellor for a fourth consecutive term, the CDU/SCU bloc she leads lost 20 percent of its seats in the parliament. It appears that Merkel will be required to establish a narrow coalition without the participation of her long-time partner, the SPD party, which announced its intention to move to the opposition. These results, coupled with the...
In the past few years, the European demand for arms has increased due to the significant security challenges that have developed throughout the continent. This trend has also resulted in a marked increase in Israeli defense exports to European countries, which is expected to continue in the years to come, especially to Eastern Europe. This development requires that Israel act cautiously—among other reasons—in order to avoid a direct diplomatic clash with Russia, which is the primary reason for the current European armament.
Although President Trump described the G20 summit in Hamburg as a “wonderful success,” commentators emphasized the extent to which the US has been isolated, claiming that the summit provided additional evidence of the US losing its leadership status. Beyond the issues of disagreement between the US and other G20 members mentioned in the Hamburg Declaration, participants also noted the failure of the US to bring the G20 to condemn North Korea’s missile test. On the other hand, Trump’s encounter with President Putin may have added to...
Beyond Macron’s ability to curb the trend toward social and political division, heightened by the recent presidential election, France’s new president will be judged according to his performance on three tightly-linked issues: significant economic change, a restored sense of security, and revitalization of the European Union. Political and economic logic forces Macron into close cooperation with Germany, and France and Germany will dominate the EU after the UK’s withdrawal from the organization. A general improvement in the sense of...
The United States missile attack in Syria, which is likely to restore the US image of a world power with determination and deterrence, has aroused opposition among the very forces that supported Donald Trump in his presidential campaign – supporters of Britain’s exit from the European Union, politicians from the nationalist right wing in Europe, and Russia. The attack was welcomed, however, by most European countries – the natural allies of the United States. Therefore, the measure is likely to strengthen, albeit indirectly, the...
In the coming year, the countries of Europe will face a series of tests, the results of which are liable to destabilize the European frameworks, especially the European Union (EU) and NATO, upon which they relied since recovering from two destructive World Wars, the Cold War with the Soviet Union, and the consequences of the latter’s disintegration in the late twentieth century.
In the year since the nuclear agreement with Iran was implemented and Europe lifted the sanctions, there has been much momentum and activity regarding the resumption of contacts and signed agreements between European countries and Iran. Relations with Europe are exceedingly important to the regime in Tehran, both with regard to Europe as a source of economic-commercial benefits and as a counterweight to the United States. Iran’s relationship with Europe is especially significant upon the eve of Trump’s entry into the White House, and...
2016 was the deadliest year in suicide terrorism, a main weapon of deterrence and one of the most effective tools for promoting the political goals of terrorist organizations since its use began in the early 1980s. This past year, 469 suicide bombings were carried out by 800 perpetrators in 28 countries, causing the deaths of about 5,650 people. The Islamic State continues to be the leading perpetrator of suicide bombings in the world, and in 2016 was directly or indirectly responsible (through organizations that swore allegiance...
The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the...
The article addresses the security and political challenges facing Europe as a result of the flood of refugees and immigrants from the Middle East. The analysis emphasizes the acceleration of separatist, nationalistic, and extremist processes in the European Union in the absence of a solution to the refugee crisis, and the constraints affecting the efforts to reduce the scope of immigration from countries that have lost their centers of governance, principally Libya and Syria.
The United States’ stature as a leading global power in the Middle East has eroded in recent years. The administration’s decision to play a reactive rather than a proactive role in the Middle East created a vacuum in the region that was filled by elements that worked against the interests of the United States and its regional allies. The new US administration will be under the scrutiny of the international community, and the first steps that it takes will have critical implications for the way in which the various actors in the...
On July 1, 2016, the Middle East Quartet published its latest report, focusing on major threats to achievement of a negotiated Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement and offering recommenda- tions to advance the two-state solution. Despite the criticism of Israel, from Israel’s perspective the report includes three central positive elements. First, it frames the situation as a political conflict in which both sides carry a sizable share of the blame. In this respect the report is a refreshing change from international reports,...
