War is raging on Ukrainian soil, but the Russian forces have thus far failed to surround and isolate Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. The United States, Great Britain, and the European Union are fully coordinating their response, with a focus on three areas: economic and political isolation of Russia; the supply of military aid to Ukraine; and stepped-up military preparations among NATO countries. It is already clear that Russia’s action upsets the world order that has existed since the end of World War II, and is likely to cause...
The events surrounding the Ukraine crisis – irrespective of whether Russia continues to realize its threats to invade, or the NATO countries and Russia reach agreements that at least for now remove the threat of a Russian full-scale attack against Ukraine – already pose challenges to the international order that has existed for the past three decades. Similarly, they have direct and indirect, immediate and longer-term consequences for the Middle East in general, and for Israel in particular. In any case, and even if Israel prefers to...
The possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and a subsequent descent into war is now the focus of the international agenda. It is not clear if Russia intends to launch a military move or if it seeks to leverage its buildup of troops to force the West to accept its demands. Even if the military conflict does not materialize, this is a crisis of an “ideological” nature that is hard to resolve. The US administration and its NATO allies are promoting a policy revolving around the search for diplomatic solutions, including the threat...
The international system is struggling with many crises and challenges, led by the continued efforts at economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while coping with the pandemic itself; the intensifying competition between the United States and China, which heightens the divisiveness in the international dynamic; and the climate crisis, which tests the ability to cooperate despite disagreements. The US administration has less attention for the Middle East, and is restoring human rights considerations to a central place in its policy,...
The main trend in the Middle East arena is regional detente. Following the competition for hegemony between the various camps (Shiite, Sunni pragmatic, the Muslim Brotherhood, and jihadist) that dominated events in recent years, the patterns in the Middle East shifted in 2021. Especially prominent was a tendency absent in the region for many years in favor of cooperation, departing from the reigning divisiveness. Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in dialogue, in part through the mediation of Iraq; the United Arab Emirates terminated...
In the coming year, President Joe Biden and his administration will almost certainly continue to focus primarily on complex domestic issues. Although in any event the President has three more years left to his first term, his ability to fulfill his promises will have a dramatic impact on his presidency and the legacy he leaves. Inter alia, Biden and the Democrats are expected to face the possibility that in the November 2022 midterm elections the party will lose the slim majority it currently enjoys in both houses of Congress. Israel...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The talks on the possibility of returning to the nuclear deal (JCPOA) are supposed to be renewed on November 29. In the background of the publication of the reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency detailing violations by Iran – both of the nuclear deal and of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. At this stage, it is impossible to assess whether the Iranians have decided to return to the talks with the intent of reaching an agreement, or alternatively of proving that Washington is responsible for failing...
There has never been complete agreement between Washington and Jerusalem over a number of core issues affecting Israel’s security. United States administrations and Israeli governments have come and gone, and these issues remained in place and sometimes had a temporary impact on American political and military aid to Israel. Demographic and political changes in the United States, the return of the Democrats to the White House and to control over both houses of Congress, demographic and ideological changes in the Democratic Party...
The withdrawal from Afghanistan by the United States 20 years after it attacked the Taliban regime and al-Qaeda in response to the September 11 terrorist attacks closes a historic circle. Al-Qaeda’s attack against the American homeland and its iconic symbols challenged the United States, and led it to invade Afghanistan and drive the Taliban out of the country into Pakistan, and also hurt al-Qaeda severely. The United States later took advantage of the prevailing international atmosphere to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein...
The bitter taste left by the chaotic withdrawal of the forces of the United States and its allies from Afghanistan, the collapse of the Afghan government and army, and the seizure of power by the Taliban are evidence of the failure of US nation building efforts along the lines of a Western democracy. Ending the campaign in Afghanistan immediately after achieving its first objective, without trying to reshape the country, would have spared the United States the embarrassment heightened by the complications of the withdrawal and a...
At the start of H. E. President Isaac Herzog’s term of office, and following the many global and local developments and changes over the past six months – including a new administration in Washington, President Biden’s decision to try to return to the nuclear deal with Iran, the formation of a new government in Israel, and growing tensions in Israeli society, including clashes between Arabs and Jews in Israeli cities – the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) presented to President Herzog highlights on the main strategic...
