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INSS Insight
The Transition to Phase II in the Gaza Strip—An Unprecedented Challenge for Israel
The US administration has declared the transition to Phase II of the Trump plan for stabilizing the Gaza Strip, presenting both the international “Board of Peace” (BoP), which is meant to support the management and reconstruction of the Strip, and the Palestinian technocratic committee that will administer Gaza’s affairs. The general who will head the International Stabilization Force (ISF) was also announced. Israeli and Palestinian reactions reveal a gap in expectations and concerns: Israel seeks to slow the pace of progress, as...
Yohanan Tzoreff
27.01.2026
INSS Insight
The Istanbul Bridge’s Important Journey: A New Chapter for the Northern Sea Route
The recent transit of the Istanbul Bridge, a China-linked container ship, through the Russian-controlled Northern Sea Route (NSR) marks an important milestone in the history of Arctic navigation. The vessel departed from the Port of Ningbo on September 22, 2025, and arrived at Felixstowe, United Kingdom, on October 13, 2025. It was the first liner service to traverse the Northern Sea Route (NSR). It demonstrated that the NSR could potentially become part of global container shipping networks, linking Asian manufacturing centers to...
Paul Weisko
26.01.2026
Database
Findings of the National Security Survey: January 2026
Summary of the Results A large majority of the Israeli public (62.5%) assesses that Israel will be required to renew fighting against Iran within the next six months. At the same time, the public is divided regarding a proactive Israeli strike against Iran at this time: 45% of the public supports such an action, while 43% opposes it. In parallel, only one-third of the public (33%) believes that Israel should intervene in Iran’s internal developments in light of the wave of popular protests, while a majority of 54% opposes such...
Mora Deitch | Idit Shafran Gittleman | Abir Gitlin | Gal Shani
22.01.2026
INSS Insight
Jewish Terrorism in Judea and Samaria—A Strategic-Security Threat
The scope of Jewish terrorism against Palestinians living in Judea and Samaria has evolved from marginal, localized incidents into a widespread phenomenon occurring within the broader struggle for control of the area and a growing effort to uproot the Palestinian presence, primarily from Area C. The number and scale of violent attacks have increased in recent years, with greater intensity since October 7, 2023. Despite this, the Israeli government and the security establishment—including the Judea and Samaria District of the Israel...
Reem Cohen
22.01.2026
INSS Insight
The Gulf States and a US–Iranian Confrontation
The possibility of a military confrontation between the United States and Iran poses weighty dilemmas for the Gulf states. On the one hand, they fear Iranian attacks on energy facilities, water-desalination plants, and US bases on their territory, as well as on oil and gas export routes from the Gulf. On the other hand, they are concerned about the consequences of a collapse of the Iranian regime, whose patterns of behavior are well known. From their perspective, a weakened and restrained Iranian regime is preferable to potential...
Yoel Guzansky
22.01.2026
Memoranda
Drifting into a One-State Reality: Active Accelerators and Possible Halts
The memorandum proposes a research framework for analyzing and understanding a major strategic challenge facing the State of Israel: an accelerating slide toward a “one-state” reality between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Such an outcome is expected to severely undermine the Zionist vision of a Jewish, democratic, secure, and prosperous state. The memorandum examines the main drivers pushing Israel toward a one-state model. These include the erosion of the two-state paradigm; the weakening of the Palestinian Authority;...
Udi Dekel | Noy Shalev
21.01.2026
INSS Insight
On the Road to the Third Iranian Republic
The foundations of the Islamic Republic have, since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, been anchored in the concept of the rule of the jurist (velayat-e faqih), shaped in the spirit of the vision of the revolution’s architect, Ruhollah Khomeini. His death in 1989 necessitated a clear deviation from this principle since none of his loyal disciples possessed sufficiently high religious standing to succeed him. The appointment of Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader—made possible by an amendment to the Iranian constitution—heralded the...
Raz Zimmt
20.01.2026
Technology Platform
Laser Systems for Object Detection and Three-Dimensional Mapping
The laser is an auxiliary tool on the modern battlefield, used either as a weapon—such as a high-power laser—or as a supporting means, such as a target designator or range finder. One of the most prominent uses of lasers is as a type of sensor, or a kind of sensitive radar, for detecting stationary or moving objects and for highly accurate area mapping, in a system known as LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging).
Yehoshua Kalisky | Anna Sokolenko | Iky Hazan
19.01.2026
INSS Insight
Is Russia Returning as a Security Actor in Syria?
About a year after Ahmed al-Sharaa rose to power, a renewed rapprochement between Russia and Syria—particularly in the security sphere—has become apparent. This follows an initial period of suspicion and caution, reflecting a combination of diplomatic appeasement efforts by Moscow and Damascus’s recognition of the security threats facing Syria. In recent months, intensive dialogue has taken place between the two countries’ defense ministries and armed forces, including discussions on assistance to rehabilitate the Syrian army and on...
Georgy Poroskoun
19.01.2026
INSS Insight
Strategic Assessment: Scenarios for US Intervention in the Unrest in Iran and Possible Iranian Responses
Three weeks after the outbreak of a wave of unrest across Iran—which has claimed thousands of lives and led to the arrest of thousands more—the US administration faces a series of operational decisions in light of threats issued by President Trump toward the regime in Tehran. The president’s threats began with a public statement that the United States would come “to rescue” the protesters if the regime continued to employ lethal violence against them. This escalated with an additional tweet on January 13 in which he wrote that “help...
Avishay Ben Sasson-Gordis | Jesse R. Weinberg | Sima Shine | Danny Citrinowicz
19.01.2026
INSS Insight
Five Years Since Israel’s Transfer to CENTCOM: An Organizational Change or a Regional Revolution?
On January 15, 2021, the Pentagon announced the transfer of Israel from the area of responsibility of the US European Command (EUCOM) to that of the US Central Command (CENTCOM). This move marked a substantive shift in the security perception of both the United States and Israel regarding the Middle East. Five years after the transfer, and in the shadow of the October 7 war, this article examines the move through the prism of regional security doctrine and concludes that Israel’s integration into CENTCOM has been demonstrated to be a...
Yanir Kapach
18.01.2026
INSS Insight
Between Peace and Hudna: Islamic Discourse in Syria and the Israeli Dilemma
This article analyzes Islamic discourse among institutions and clerics associated with Syria’s new regime. The discourse reflects fundamentally hostile positions toward Israel and rejects peace with it; however, it is neither uniform nor static. Alongside rigid Islamist ideological expressions—most of which emerged in response to Israeli military activity in Syria—over the past year, there has also been a noticeable softening in tone and frequency. This trend does not indicate a deep ideological shift or the groundwork for full...
Ofir Winter | Carmit Valensi | Amal Hayek
16.01.2026

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  • Research

    • Topics
      • Israel and the Global Powers
      • Israel-United States Relations
      • Glazer Israel-China Policy Center
      • Russia
      • Europe
      • Antisemitism and Delegitimization
      • Iran and the Shi'ite Axis
      • Iran
      • Lebanon and Hezbollah
      • Syria
      • Yemen and the Houthi Movement
      • Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite Militias
      • Conflict to Agreements
      • Israeli-Palestinian Relations
      • Hamas and the Gaza Strip
      • Peace Agreements and Normalization in the Middle East
      • Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States
      • Turkey
      • Egypt
      • Jordan
      • Israel’s National Security Policy
      • Military and Strategic Affairs
      • Societal Resilience and the Israeli Society
      • Jewish-Arab Relations in Israel
      • Climate, Infrastructure and Energy
      • Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict
      • Cross-Arena Research
      • Data Analytics Center
      • Law and National Security
      • Advanced Technologies and National Security
      • Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference
      • Economics and National Security
    • Projects
      • Preventing the Slide into a One-State Reality
  • Publications

    • All Publications
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