The Six Day War: The Intelligence Assessments on the Road to War

Prior to the Six Day War, the intelligence assessments shifted drastically. The basic approach initially claimed that Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser would not dare to act against Israel while his army was involved in the fighting in Yemen. The assessment then claimed that the Egyptian army was deployed in Sinai for defense and deterrence. The final assessment was that Nasser was prepared for a confrontation with Israel. This essay describes the strategic assessments of the Military Intelligence Directorate before the outbreak of the war, examines their changes, and presents possible lessons for today’s intelligence establishment, such as how to deal with the challenge of preventing escalation to war.