Publications

An analysis of the implications of the defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan through four possible scenarios – and recommendations for Israel

The current U.S. administration is advancing a major deal, valued at over $700 million, to sell F110 engines to Turkey for its KAAN aircraft project. Despite the administration’s attempts to bypass congressional barriers, this move is not an isolated event; rather, it is a strategic accelerator intended to pave the way for Ankara’s full return to the F-35 program. While Washington’s rationale seeks to preserve Turkey as an anchor within NATO, in practice, it creates a serious dilemma and presents a weighty, threefold strategic risk: Undermining NATO from within: Empowering an actor that is engaged in aggressive competition against Western allies (such as Greece) and is entrenching a defiant military presence in Cyprus. Fueling Regional Friction: Granting legitimacy to a competitive power that provides a safe haven for Hamas and supports the al-Sharaa regime in Syria. Creating a Systemic Risk to the Global F-35 Network: Deploying 5th-generation capabilities in proximity to Russian S-400 systems risks compromising and cracking the information security of the platform as a whole. This threat is not limited to the erosion of Israel’s qualitative edge or the exposure of its defense industries; it constitutes a direct threat to every country in the world equipped with the F-35, alongside concerns over the possible proliferation of KAAN aircraft to additional militaries across the Sunni sphere.

Missiles, refugees, Kurds, and eroding regional standing: The challenges Ankara faces during the war in Iran, its actions, and the opportunities it may seek to exploit