Strategic Assessment

This article analyzes the US-Kurdish relationship in light of the election of Donald Trump, and examines the different variables that must be considered as President Trump formulates a policy toward the Middle East and the Kurds. The article argues that President Trump has two core interests in the Middle East: to eliminate the Islamic State and to contain Iran. Both these policies will impact on the Kurds, and to this end certain Kurdish and American interests align, particularly in the opposition to the Islamic State. However, while they will fight the Islamic State when the Islamic State threatens Kurdish interests, the Kurds have shown little interest in expanding their efforts beyond Kurdish territory and fighting the organization in non-Kurdish territory. Furthermore, given the tensions between Kurdish political actors, any external assistance to the Kurds could lead to increased inter-ethnic tensions. Regarding President Trump’s second interest of containing Iran, it is highly unlikely that any Kurdish political actors would pursue policies that are openly hostile toward Iran, as the Kurds do not currently perceive Iran as a major threat to their interests.