Since October 7, a lively debate has been underway in professional circles regarding the need to update or revise Israel’s national security strategy. As is well known to those engaged in the field, Israel does not have, and has never had, a national security strategy in the full sense of the term—one that is written, approved by the political leadership, and made public. In practice, the term “security strategy” is used in Israel as a tool that those who invoke it define as they see fit and employ for their own purposes. Yet in the...
This article applies Paul Kennedy’s thesis of imperial overstretch as a structural lens through which to examine Israel’s strategic trajectory in 2026. It does not contend that Israel is an empire, nor that decline is foreordained. Rather, it argues that the mechanism Kennedy identified, namely the tendency for strategic commitments to outgrow the productive base that must finance them, combined with the political incapacity of governing coalitions to redistribute burdens before the corrective window closes, operates at...
The current U.S. administration is advancing a major deal, valued at over $700 million, to sell F110 engines to Turkey for its KAAN aircraft project. Despite the administration’s attempts to bypass congressional barriers, this move is not an isolated event; rather, it is a strategic accelerator intended to pave the way for Ankara’s full return to the F-35 program. While Washington’s rationale seeks to preserve Turkey as an anchor within NATO, in practice, it creates a serious dilemma and presents a weighty,...
In 2026, Israel is militarily stronger than it was in 2023. Yet despite its military achievements, as well as its economic resilience and the endurance demonstrated by the home front in the face of security threats, it finds itself at one of the lowest strategic points in its history. Israel is caught in what can be described as a “strategic limbo” — a prolonged state of stagnation in which impressive tactical military achievements, along with unprecedented military cooperation with the United States, are not translated into a...
As the campaign against Iran winds down, attention is expected to return to the Gaza Strip. In the meantime, Hamas is exploiting the strategic vacuum to rehabilitate its governance and military capabilities. Simultaneously, the Trump framework remains stalled, and the “Board of Peace” faces professional, operational, and budgetary difficulties in advancing its declared objectives. The issue of demilitarization remains trapped between Israel’s demand for the complete and immediate disarmament of Hamas and the...
“Operation Roaring Lion,” the war against Iran and its proxies, has not yet reached its conclusion. Although the final outcome remains unclear and the current situation may soon shift, the campaign’s distinctive characteristics allow for an interim assessment. This is the most extensive war fought in the Middle East since the Second Gulf War, and the first in which Israel is fighting as an active partner in a coalition with the United States. While its global implications have yet to fully emerge, it is already clear that...
Although we are currently in the midst of a war and do not yet know how it will end, the US negotiations initiative—which may bring the campaign to an end—requires a clear definition of Israel’s interest regarding the Iranian nuclear project.
The conclusion of Operation Roaring Lion will place Israel and the international community before a new strategic reality vis-à-vis Iran. The regime in Tehran, if it survives the war, may—after experiencing systemic trauma and damage to its senior leadership—adopt a national security doctrine...
Israel, since October 7, has been trapped in a conception of “absolute security” that drives it toward continuous war. If security is defined as the complete removal of every threat already in its earliest stages of emergence, and even more so when it is clear and tangible—rather than its reduction or the construction of a stabilizing political framework—then almost any other outcome of conflict will be perceived as insufficient, any arrangement as surrender, and any achievement as partial and therefore a failure.
Against this...
The concept of victory has become increasingly politicized, particularly the notion of an “absolute victory.” At the same time, the term “decisive defeat” is widely used but rarely defined with precision. This article examines the concept of victory through a professional, military-strategic lens, differentiating it from decisive defeat. The distinction is essential for understanding Israel’s achievements in the war against Hamas and for framing public expectations, especially regarding scenarios in which Hamas may continue to exist...
Following two tumultuous years—one of the most significant periods in the history of the State of Israel– this paper offers a preliminary assessment of the far-reaching changes brought about by the Swords of Iron War. While it is too early to fully analyze its consequences, and the war’s end remains uncertain, an interim evaluation is required. Even if fighting resumes, it will unfold under different circumstances, shaped by the lessons created by the war.
This paper reviews and analyzes the key developments of the war,...
The agreement that has been reached is a tremendous achievement for Israel. It includes what Hamas had refused until now: the immediate release of all the hostages, thereby relinquishing its principal bargaining chip before the IDF withdraws from the Gaza Strip, and a demilitarization clause that appears in the agreement—even if Hamas avoided formally accepting it. For Hamas, this clause is a double-edged sword: If it complies, it loses; if it does not, it will face political and military attacks for violating the agreement, without...
With the major turning point in the war in the Gaza Strip, the release of all the remaining living hostages, and the apparent end of the intense phase of fighting, it is time to return to and reexamine several fundamental assumptions of the Arab–Israeli conflict. Segments of the Israeli elite are deeply—and rightly—concerned about the growing messianic and annexationist tendencies in Israel, which have reached their peak in the current governing coalition. They also sense—again understandably—that the absence of an adequate response...
