Publications

Amid concerns over the stalemate in Ukraine, alarm over Russia’s hostile actions against member states, and a heightened threat from China, NATO has seen fit to take actions to strengthen the alliance in a bid to hedge against a hostile US administration, should Trump return to the White House in January. From an Israeli perspective, it is important to note the language of the alliance in regard to Iran, which is viewed as a malign actor that poses a threat to Euro-Atlantic security. Given NATO’s efforts to engage with its “southern...

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

President Putin’s decision to annex four regions of Ukraine and his definition of his struggle against the Western elites as an existential struggle, while avowing his determination to defend the annexed territories and making implicit threats about the possibility of using unconventional weapons, significantly increase the risk of escalation. Consequently, the United States and its allies are now at a crossroads. It seems that Russia’s conduct will compel them to formulate a follow-up strategy that will heighten the...

The West’s goal in the campaign in Ukraine is still the prevention of a Russian victory and the guarantee that Ukraine does not lose. To this end, the United States administration is leading an international effort to upgrade substantially the quality and speed of heavy arms transfers to Ukraine. At the same time, it is clear to the West that despite Russia’s failure so far to achieve its original goals in the war, President Putin does not intend to retreat. It is therefore likely that the US administration and European...

Questions of the “what would have happened if” are irrelevant to historical research, unless they add a current perspective. Such a perspective exists insofar as Ukraine is not part of NATO or the European Union, unlike other European countries that were part of the Soviet bloc and were accepted into these organizations following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. And now, when parts of Ukraine have been captured by Russia, and two regions have even been recognized by Russia as independent, this question arises anew. The rigid...

Notwithstanding the signing of the Abraham Accords and the growing prominence of the cooperation between Israel and the Arab Gulf states, including on security matters, the road to the establishment of a joint fighting force with Israel’s participation is still long and obstacle-ridden. Moreover, it is hard to see the possibility of any Gulf readiness to agree to such a military alliance without American involvement or leadership. Therefore, if Israel seeks to promote a regional military arrangement – even as a significant and...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...

After brief and discreet coalition talks, Olaf Scholz became Germany’s ninth Chancellor and the fourth from the Social Democratic party. Scholz will head a tripartite coalition, the first of its kind in the history of the Republic (at the federal level) – “the traffic light coalition,” referring to the colors of the constituent parties. The starting position of the Scholz government will not grant it one hundred days of grace: the fourth wave of COVID-19 has hit Germany, and in foreign affairs the Chancellor will have to deal with...

Joe Biden made his first presidential visit outside the United States to Europe, attending the G7 summit, the NATO summit, and a meeting with EU leaders. At the end of the visit, Biden met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva. For the US President, the trip was “about realizing America’s renewed commitment to [its] allies and partners, and demonstrating the capacity of democracies to both meet the challenges and deter the threats of this new age.” Specifically, the administration is interested in mobilizing US...

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...