The waves of protests in Lebanon in recent weeks and the country’s political instability stem primarily from fundamental problems in the local economy, including the absence of reforms and the rampant corruption among the ruling elite and all government institutions. The downgrading of Lebanon’s credit ratings, lower growth rates, and high unemployment have sent the Lebanese economy to its lowest point since the end of the civil war. These developments are highly problematic for the country’s decision makers,...
The UN Security Council recently published its periodic report on Resolution 1701 (2006). Against the backdrop of severe security incidents and political challenges in Lebanon, and alongside traditional formulations, there are some salient new elements in this report: extensive and relatively detailed attention to the restriction on freedom of movement and access of UNIFIL forces in South Lebanon; exposure of the active role played by the Lebanese government and military in violating 1701 and impeding the implementation of the UN...
The ongoing protests in Lebanon are a threat to both stable governance and to the dominant role of Hezbollah within the political system. Hezbollah is not interested in change to a status quo that has allowed the organization to wield significant influence without being perceived as a lead actor, all the while preserving its independence, primarily as an armed militia. Consequently, Hezbollah has been working to quell the upheavals without thus far resorting to wide scale violence, while pointing the finger of blame at outside...
The ongoing protests across Iraq and Lebanon have invited references to a second Arab Spring, nearly nine years after a young Tunisian man set himself on fire and triggered a region-wide upheaval. The unrest comes on the heels of protests in Egypt and Jordan earlier this fall, a mass mobilization in Sudan this year, and a protest movement in Algeria that has endured since February. Recently, mass demonstrations have also broken out across Iran, suggesting the current wave may not remain confined to the Arab Middle East. Each of these...
The demonstrations throughout Lebanon over the last week erupted spontaneously and saw a full range of the population participating and calling on the leaders of all communities to form a new government and change the current order. The immediate trigger for the protest was a decision to impose a tax on WhatsApp calls; at the heart of the demonstrations, however, is the worsening economic situation and paralysis of a “unity government” hard-put to progress toward solutions that can improve the situation. The mass protest...
The considerations that have so far guided Hezbollah’s calculated retaliation on September 1, 2019 following Israel’s strikes, and the August 25 drone strike in Beirut in particular, reflect its character as an organization with multiple identities – all of which influence its decision making. Hezbollah simultaneously constitutes a pivotal link in the regional “resistance axis” led by Iran; a Lebanese “resistance” movement and “defender of Lebanon”; and an organization within Lebanon...
Strikes reportedly carried out by Israel over the past month in Iraq, and in recent days in Syria and Lebanon, are part of the “campaign between wars” (CBW) that Israel has waged against Iran’s regional campaign of proxy warfare. These incidents mark a deviation from the routine and from the principles that had guided the campaign in recent years. The recent sequence of events has three salient characteristics: the theaters of operations, the operational tempo and their public profile. These events have possible...
There are growing signs that Israel has expanded its campaign against Iran’s efforts to consolidate its power in the region, including in attacks on infrastructures in Iraq that are linked to Iran. An overall cost-benefit analysis should prompt Israel to consider the potential implications of expanding the campaign, among them an early withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, which would leave Israel alone in the campaign against Iran’s entrenchment in the region. The Iranian attempt to carry out weaponized drone attacks...
Among the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean – a region with a long history of rivalries and disputes – there is a growing understanding that the window of opportunity to use natural gas to improve their economic situation significantly may close due to strong competition from other regions that are more stable politically and have larger quantities of natural gas. The growing economic wisdom in the eastern Mediterranean basin will not solve the various disputes between the countries of the region, but it may reduce...
July 12, 2019 will mark the thirteenth anniversary of the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War; August 14 will mark the anniversary of its end under Security Council Resolution 1701; and discussions will be held at the United Nations headquarters regarding a renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate for another year. Resolution 1701 called for a ceasefire, prevention of renewed hostilities, and establishment of the area south of the Litani River as an area free of non-governmental arms, and called on Lebanon to impose its sovereignty over its...
Agreement has been reached between Israel and Lebanon on advancing negotiations to resolve the dispute on demarcation of the maritime border – an issue that has become more relevant following gas discoveries in the Mediterranean Sea and the interest of both countries in maximizing the economic benefit of gas production. So far, all attempts at mediation have failed, even though in the last set of talks (2011-2012), Israel agreed to a suggested compromise that provided a greater portion (with a ratio of 55:45) of the area in dispute...
Voices in the Arab media have recently suggested that war between Israel and Hezbollah may erupt this coming summer. This debate began even before the rise in tension between the United States and Iran in the Gulf, which once again brought to the fore the possibility of Iran using Hezbollah as a proxy against Israel. In recent speeches, however, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah acted quickly to calm the waters, while delivering messages designed to deter Israel from taking measures against Hezbollah. Nasrallah asserted...
