Sinai militancy changed over 2015, following the decision of the peninsula’s main violent jihadi group – Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis – to pledge allegiance to the Islamic State organization and become Wilayat Sinai. The developments have created challenges for Egypt and for Israel, but they also provide an opening to weaken the group’s entrenchment in North Sinai. For the first time, the local population needs the Egyptian state to protect it from militancy. To exploit this opportunity, Egypt should do more than continue with its military...
Israeli coverage of individual terrorist attacks has generally followed a set pattern, notable primarily for the lesser prominence assigned to most attacks by the media. Attempted attacks, rock and Molotov cocktail throwing, and tire burnings that do not result in casualties are rarely reported. Moreover, even when the topic does make it to the media, it remains on the sidelines; coverage is brief, not prominently placed, and is quick to leave the news cycle. In order to deal with the phenomenon of individual terrorism, a balance...
Over the last two years, the Islamic State organization has become one of the most dangerous elements in the Middle East. Its very existence, essence, and actions affect many nations throughout the world; its effect is most striking in the Middle East. This terrorist organization, flying the black flag as its official banner, represents an extreme branch of orthodox Sunni Islam, challenging all existing orders of governance and seeking to replace them with an Islamic regime that imitates the conduct and way of life typical of the...
The activity of global jihad elements in Russia and the Caucasus is not a new threat, but the penetration of the Islamic State into the region, through an alliance with the local Salafist jihadi terror elements, bodes ill for the region. It is thus understandable why over the last few months the tone of the Russian attitude to Islamic State in general has changed. In the past, Russia’s policy was to trivialize the threat posed by the Islamic State both to the regional order in the Middle East and to Russia itself. The Islamic State...
It is important to be clear about what issues were part of the negotiations with Iran. The country’s role in Syria and its support for different terrorist organizations in the Middle East were not at any point discussed in the negotiations, nor was it part of the agreement signed in Vienna. Similarly, progress on the nuclear file was not made conditional upon Iran changing its regional policy. Therefore, those who are expecting to see a significant change in Iranian policies are likely to be disappointed. The fear is that despite...
The jihadist insurgency in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula is taking an increasing toll on the local population and its tribal society. To confront this challenge, leaders of tribes from across the peninsula met on May 10, 2015 to discuss a plan of action. The resulting statement from the “Sinai Tribal Union” was not a declaration of war against the Islamic State-affiliated “State of Sinai.” However, its recommendations for action have significant implications for the Egyptian military campaign in the North Sinai governorate and for Egyptian...
Recent weeks have seen an escalation in the conflict in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and the Salafi jihad groups that support the Islamic State organization. Israel clearly has much interest in the conflict, especially given the possibility that an Islamic State infrastructure or a satellite of the group backed by al-Baghdadi could be established in Gaza. Any development in this direction is liable to translate into activity against Israel. It is possible that in the framework of the effort to halt the expansion of the Islamic...
On January 15, 2015, an expanded panel of judges of the Israeli Supreme Court, in a re-hearing (CFH 5698/11), ordered the dismissal of Mustafa Dirani’s petition against the State of Israel for damages regarding his claims of being tortured by his interrogators while in custody in Israel. In this ruling, the Supreme Court expanded the customary common law rule precluding the examination of an enemy’s claim during wartime and applied it to members of terrorist organizations operating out of foreign countries, even if not in a formal...
A prominent feature of many terrorist attacks in recent months by Islamic radicals is their independent, spontaneous, unplanned nature – sometimes called the work of lone wolves. The phenomenon presents a serious challenge to the security establishments in the nations where there has been a rise in the scope of spontaneous attacks, the West in general and Israel in particular. A critical review of the spontaneous attacks and some of the perpetrators points to two key characteristics that could help formulate a current doctrine of...
Egypt is in the midst of a war that can be categorized as a low-intensity conflict. This category represents a common pattern of military campaigns in the early twenty-first century: sub-conventional wars fought by armies and security services belonging to states against armies of terrorilla- fully armed and hierarchical organizations that operate among civilian populations, combining guerilla and terror warfare tactics with the logic of terrorism. Egypt’s campaign in Sinai has tremendous significance for Israel. Any intelligence,...
