In recent months, as Iran has approached the nuclear threshold and shortened the times for producing nuclear weapons, and as the monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency over the nuclear facilities has significantly declined, Iran could likely decide to change its policy and achieve nuclear weapons capability. Although a decision on this matter poses risks to Iran—military conflict with Israel and possibly even the United States—Iranian leader Ali Khamenei could retreat from his current position that maintaining the...
The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded its quarterly meeting held on March 4–8, and once again no resolution was adopted against Iran. This is despite the IAEA report leaving no doubt that Iran is vigorously advancing its nuclear program and preventing the agency from exercising its oversight responsibilities. The United States and European countries reacted strongly to the report but refrained from demanding that the Board of Governors take practical action against Iran; however, they...
On March 1, 2024, elections were held for the Iranian parliament, the Majles, and the Assembly of Experts. Despite the anticipated victory for the conservatives, these elections held significant importance as they marked the first substantial test of the regime’s power since the widespread wave of protests that swept Iran in 2022 and against the backdrop of a likely power struggle to take over the country in the coming years. Despite calls from senior regime officials urging the public to vote, the Interior Ministry reported a...
Iran was one of the first states to formulate a national cyber strategy, including development of the necessary state institutions and technological capabilities. Today, Iran is one of the more active states in the cyber realm, near the top of the second tier of global actors. Iran’s cyber attacks have demonstrated the potential to disrupt, sabotage and even destroy civil and commercial targets, critical national infrastructure and military capabilities, and its cyber espionage and information operations have been particularly...
While the international community is focused on attempts to end Israel’s war against Hamas, which benefits from support from the Iranian-led axis, a severe report published by the International Atomic Energy Agency ahead of an upcoming meeting of the organization’s Board of Governors indicates that the Iranian nuclear issue is far from resolved. It appears that Western nations, led by the United States, still seek a political solution to the problem. At the same time, the increased tension between Washington and Tehran and the fact...
The Swords of Iron war between Israel and Hamas has assumed a new regional nature, with attacks by Iranian proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen. While Yemen is a secondary combat zone, the potential damage it could cause to Israel and the Gulf states, which have been accused by the Houthis of collaborating with Israel, could increase. If the Houthis continue to be involved in the fighting, Israel will be forced to find ways to deter them and respond to their aggression, which will make it hard for the Gulf states to maintain...
The increase in attacks by pro-Iranian militias against the US presence in Iraq and Syria, and the corresponding increase in the number of US forces in the region – coupled with the clear warnings from senior US officials that they hold Iran responsible for the tension – are signs of possible escalation. Although neither the United States nor Iran wants a direct confrontation, these developments, in addition to the potential deterioration of the situation between Israel and Hezbollah, have heightened the possibility of such a...
The tensions between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency reached new heights with Tehran’s recent decision to revoke the entry visas of eight inspectors, including those with profound knowledge of uranium enrichment technology and deep familiarity with Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s decision was preceded by an announcement by France, the United Kingdom, and Germany (the E3) that they would not cancel sanctions, due to expire in October, barring Iran from exporting or importing ballistic missiles and drones. In addition,...
Recent months have seen Iran engaged in a diplomatic campaign designed to breach its international isolation and the sanctions regime. In this framework, Iran seeks membership in international organizations that challenge Western dominance. It has already been accepted to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and has been invited to join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as a member of BRICS. In addition, Iran’s President and a number of ministers visited Asia, Africa, and Latin America in an effort to tighten political,...
Two parallel and contradictory processes are currently underway between the United States and Iran. With the mediation of Qatar and Oman, the two countries reached a prisoner exchange agreement in return for the release of approximately $10 billion in frozen assets, which would be deposited in a Qatari bank and serve Iranian humanitarian needs. At the same time, the United States has reinforced its forces in and around the Strait of Hormuz with warships and thousands of marines, as well as fighter jets, some of which are carrying...
Recent weeks have seen a spirited public debate within the Islamic Republic concerning the participation of many Iranians in Shiite religious ceremonies and the significance of such activity for the status of religion in Iranian society. The debate is unfolding against the background of profound trends in Iran over the past few decades, including rapid secularization, the erosion of clerical authority, Westernization, and modernization. Nonetheless, these trends do not necessarily indicate a full shift toward secularism as understood...
In recent weeks there have been reports of contacts between the United States and Iran to formulate a framework of understandings, whereby Tehran will agree to certain restrictions on its nuclear program and release Americans detained in Iran. In exchange, some of the sanctions will be eased, including the release of Iranian funds frozen overseas. If these understandings materialize, Iran will enjoy a considerable financial benefit and will also be able to retain the fissile material it has accumulated. For the United States, these...
