In public health terms, Israel has met most of the objectives required at this phase to contain the spread of the coronavirus in the country, but at the cost of severe damage to the economy. Therefore, this framework recommends that after the Passover holiday, the country begin to transition to the next phase: toward resuming economic activity, taking a gradual and differential approach – restarting prioritized activity of vital economic branches, while taking a calculated risk of a limited rise in the spread of the virus. Economic...
On March 31, 2020, a war game was held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) simulating a cabinet session about the coronavirus crisis, attended by cabinet ministers, advisers, and experts (played by INSS researchers and other participants with relevant expertise). The war game, led by Brig. Gen. (ret.) Itai Brun and conducted through Zoom, considered Israeli policy on the coronavirus crisis and, in particular, strategic options for exiting the lockdown after Passover. The war game was part of the Institute’s...
The corona crisis, which has fueled a high degree of global uncertainty and increased the chances of distorted perceptions, will likely also have an impact on Israel’s strategic environment. While the outbreak of the virus reduces the chances of military escalation anytime soon, a brainstorming session held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) highlighted ten negative scenarios that could occur during the crisis. The outbreak itself could increase the likelihood of: a collapse of regimes and governing systems, a wave...
Itai Brun | Yoel Guzansky | Daniel Rakov | Sarah J. Feuer
Israel is not far from a complete lockdown. The policy, driven at the urging of the health system in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, comes with increasing economic and social costs. As a result of the crisis, some 900,000 people have joined the ranks of the unemployed (including unpaid leave) and the numbers are increasing. At this time, with health authorities unable to predict when the pandemic will peak, there is a need for a cautious and integrated public health–economic policy that will allow a continued...
Shmuel Even | Zvi Eckstein | Sasson Hadad | Avihai Lifschitz | Sergei Sumkim
The Chinese response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been reflected in varying intensities in medical, economic, and public relations terms in accordance with the spread of the virus. After China managed to gain control over the domestic outbreak, the Chinese government directed significant attention to the international arena in an effort to bolster China’s image as a responsible global power, and to take advantage of the infection’s outbreak around the world in order to promote its ideas and influence. However, in the...
It is no exaggeration to say that this is the first time since World War II that such large parts of the world’s population have faced a multi-system crisis with severe and long term consequences as those of the coronavirus pandemic. In the early days of the spread of the virus it was already clear that even though the world is aware of the dangers of nuclear, chemical, and biological war and has even adopted treaties and conventions with the purpose of restricting the production and proliferation of such weapons, it is not...
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is promoting the idea of building the Istanbul Canal between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara as a waterway parallel to the Bosphorus Strait. The idea itself is not new, but Erdogan hopes that its realization will be one of the major achievements of his presidency. Facing him, Mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu, who was elected to the post in spite of the President’s strong support for another candidate, is one of the leading opponents of the project. The main argument against the canal is...
Israel’s Memorandum of Understanding with the United States, which is in its second year, is the largest ever signed between the two countries. However, contracts have not yet been signed for large purchases, such as new platforms and weapons systems, due to previous commitments about purchasing in the past. At the same time, the IDF has a tremendous need for key platforms and systems sold by the United States, including fighter planes, fuel tankers, and heavy helicopters, mainly because most of those it currently has were purchased...
Israeli society in 2019 was characterized first and foremost by the broad implications of the ongoing political crisis, following two rounds of national elections and preparations for the third round in March 2020. This electoral impasse, unprecedented in Israel, involved not only the inability to form a coalition government, but also restricted the normal performance of government offices and the ability to make decisions on critical issues. Beyond this, the political stalemate exposed a series of profound deficiencies within...
At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges: Iran’s increasing audacity – on the nuclear issue, in its efforts at force buildup in Syria and other...
In December 2019, Saudi Arabia went public with Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, and was thus forced to share a partial source of its wealth with others. The IPO is designed to raise funding for the Vision 2030 plan, whose goals include reducing the kingdom’s reliance on oil revenues by shifting investment capital to other sectors. Yet the scale of the IPO (1.75 percent of company shares) and the sum raised are far from meeting the country’s vast needs. Iran’s attack on the company’s facilities in September 2019 has not...
The waves of protests in Lebanon in recent weeks and the country’s political instability stem primarily from fundamental problems in the local economy, including the absence of reforms and the rampant corruption among the ruling elite and all government institutions. The downgrading of Lebanon’s credit ratings, lower growth rates, and high unemployment have sent the Lebanese economy to its lowest point since the end of the civil war. These developments are highly problematic for the country’s decision makers,...
