Operation Guardian of the Walls provided Jerusalem an opportunity to examine Hezbollah’s policy while Israel was engaged in a military confrontation with Hamas. It was also a testing ground for Iran and Hezbollah. During the campaign, Hezbollah refrained from any direct military action against Israel and contented itself with emphasizing its support for Hamas’s struggle for Jerusalem as part of the “axis of resistance.” It encouraged solidarity demonstrations with Palestinians throughout Lebanon and along the...
The political deadlock and severe economic crisis in Lebanon have prompted political leaders in the country to search for political backing from Moscow, and to invite Russian companies to invest in infrastructure and energy projects in Lebanon. At the very least, they seek to use their dialogue with Russia to improve their bargaining power while requesting aid from the West. Against the backdrop of the crisis in Lebanon, the stream of visits to Moscow by Lebanese politicians raises the question of Russia’s interests in the...
In recent years, the northern arena has emerged as Israel’s primary military challenge. The entrenchment of the Iranian-led Shi’ite axis in Syria and Lebanon, attempts by Iran and its proxies to make inroads toward Israel’s border with Syria, and Hezbollah’s growing strength in Lebanon are all factors contributing to increased friction and cause for concern regarding the next war in the north. One thing is certain: a war on the northern front will be unlike all previous wars. as the conflict is likely to include the Lebanese arena,...
There are signs that Hezbollah is more ready than in the past to take risks vis-à-vis Israel, though at this stage it is unclear whether the organization will further escalate the situation. No deliberate reversal is evident – Hezbollah is still interested in avoiding war – but it is making an effort to consolidate the deterrence equation with Israel. This approach represents a shift from the restraint the organization displayed in the final months of President Trump’s tenure, in order to preclude any excessive response....
The INSS 14th Annual International Conference, “National Security in an Atmosphere of Global and Internal Disorder,” was held on January 26-28, 2021. Participating in the conference were foreign ministers (from Germany, India, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel), party leaders in Israel, guest experts from Israel and abroad, and INSS researchers. The discussions and lectures highlighted four key motifs that will affect Israel’s national security in the coming year – two related to the external-regional and...
Israel’s enemies are aware of its strength, preoccupied with their own domestic problems, and eager to avoid escalation. However, war in 2021 is possible – in the northern arena and Gaza – following a “dynamic of escalation.” In a war, the IDF would employ lethal offensive capabilities on the ground, in the air, at sea, and in the cyber realm, and inflict considerable damage on its enemies. But in such a war, Israel would likely face massive surface-to-surface missile and rocket fire on the home front, and attacks...
The main challenge for Israel in the northern arena is the entrenchment of the Iranian-Shiite axis and the buildup of the Iranian “war machine” in Syria and Lebanon. This entrenchment has lagged in relation to Iran’s vision and original plan, due to the Israeli “campaign between wars”; the killing of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani; the US “maximum pressure” policy; the economic, political, governance, and healthcare crisis in Lebanon, which also affects Hezbollah; and Iran’s...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
The prolonged tension in the north between the IDF and Hezbollah suggests that the two sides are actually only a few faulty or miscalculated moves away from a clash that is liable to escalate rapidly into a full-scale war, with little warning that would give the IDF time to prepare. At the same time, Israel is grappling with a Covid-19 crisis and a prolonged political crisis that has delayed essential IDF force buildup processes, particularly the budget and procurement of aircraft and battle systems, as well as the IDF’s...
The Barcelona Process was launched in 1995 in order to strengthen the relations between countries on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. Pursuant to this process, and in an effort to correct its lapses, the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) was founded in July 2008 as a broad inter-governmental framework with 43 member countries, including Israel. After a hesitant start, the new regional body gradually shaped its organizational identity and scored successes, among them dozens of projects valued at billions of dollars in the realms...
