On the twentieth anniversary of his rise to power, Bashar al-Assad faces governance and sovereignty challenges posed by the still-unfinished civil war, including the destruction and devastation of infrastructure, the foreign presence in Syria, and the lack of control in the Idlib region – the last significant rebel enclave in the northwest of the country – as well as in the east. At the same time, an economic crisis is worsening, new American sanctions have been imposed, public protests are held, and there are rifts among Assad’s...
The IDF withdrawal from Lebanon 20 years ago and the renewed deployment along the UN-recognized international border was a unilateral move by Israel, welcomed by the international community. By contrast, the application of Israeli sovereignty over territory in the West Bank, also a unilateral move, will be the annexation of disputed territory between Israel and the Palestinians, and there is a broad consensus among leading international elements of its illegality. Three critical parameters of Israel’s exit from Lebanon may shed light...
The global, regional, and internal implications of the coronavirus are still not fully clear, but Israel’s 35th government will have no 100-day grace period. It must quickly restore the economy to full activity, despite the presence of the virus and the possibility of a renewed outbreak. On the security level, all the regimes in the Middle East are busy with the pandemic and internal affairs, and will most likely seek to avoid escalation in conflicts with Israel. At the same time, the risk of unplanned escalation (in Syria,...
Iran is not expected to cede its consolidation in Syria, despite its economic difficulties and the danger of extensive popular protest related to the coronavirus pandemic. But it is possible that Iran will be forced to reduce its entrenchment activity in Syria, at least temporarily, mainly for economic reasons. Against this backdrop, the question arises: could Iran try to take advantage of Israel’s preoccupation with the coronavirus crisis to ignite a large scale conflict, especially through a strong response to Israeli air...
Tension between Hezbollah and Israel has risen in recent weeks, at the same time that the coronavirus swept through the region. While both sides are busy combating the pandemic, they are also preparing for the expected continuation of the conflict once the crisis is over, while maintaining the existing balance of deterrence between them. At this stage, their actions show that they are adhering to their policies: Hezbollah is smuggling advanced weaponry and consolidating its presence in the Golan Heights, while Israel is countering...
The coronavirus crisis has elicited responses from Salafi-jihadists around the world, including Islamic State and al-Qaeda spokesmen and Islamic clerics. The range of responses has included strict guidelines for believers on how to protect themselves from the pandemic, part of the commandment to save lives, and exhortations to return to Islam and encourage believers to continue the struggle despite the blows they suffered with the disappearance of the Islamic State. The serious crisis in the West has also led to responses of gloating...
Even if there is an effective medical response to the coronavirus soon, it will take many months, or even years, before the Middle East emerges from the economic crisis that has afflicted it and other regions since early 2020. The coronavirus crisis is in effect the new calamity following the decade of the “Arab Spring,” which severely undermined political and economic stability in a number of countries in the region and left 10 million refugees, mainly in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. Israel is capable of handling its own...
The coronavirus pandemic has placed an additional burden on Lebanon, which was already experiencing one of the worst crises in its history. With a failing economy, the country is on the verge of insolvency. According to official statistics, so far the number of infected people is relatively low (a few hundred), but the low rate of testing and the concealment of data suggests that the real figure is likely much higher. The Lebanese government has adopted strong measures and announced an emergency situation and nighttime curfew, but is...
The corona crisis, which has fueled a high degree of global uncertainty and increased the chances of distorted perceptions, will likely also have an impact on Israel’s strategic environment. While the outbreak of the virus reduces the chances of military escalation anytime soon, a brainstorming session held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) highlighted ten negative scenarios that could occur during the crisis. The outbreak itself could increase the likelihood of: a collapse of regimes and governing systems, a wave...
Itai Brun | Yoel Guzansky | Daniel Rakov | Sarah J. Feuer
The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to affect various aspects of the Syrian theater. If the pace of contagion among Iranian elements in Syria and Iran increases, Iran will be hard-put to progress with its Syrian entrenchment program. Damascus’s military gains will slow down, given the situation and the potential damage to the regime’s main sources of support: Iran, Hezbollah, and possibly even Russia. The spread of the virus in Syria and among its neighbors will likely heighten the humanitarian catastrophe afflicting Syria’s...
The campaign to conquer the Idlib governorate, the collapse of the relevant agreements, and President Assad’s determination, with Russian support, to return the region to his sovereignty could pose an existential dilemma for the Salafi-jihadist organizations operating there. At that point, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the central force opposing Assad and an example of a Salafi-jihadist organization that has evinced pragmatism and openness toward the Syrian locals, will have two main options: fighting to the end and subsequently...
The coronavirus is making its way across the Middle East, forcing states to prepare for the possible collapse of governing systems. The virus struck a region already buckling under the weight of armed conflicts, social upheaval, severe economic distress, and identity-related clashes. The data on corona’s spread is far from precise or reliable, given the lack of testing, lagging policies, and likely efforts at concealment on the part of certain regimes. But it is safe to assume that the number of infections is far greater than what is...
